20250916申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, positive growth in the power and automotive industries, and weak real estate [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, with factors like rising smelting output and weak real estate [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Copper - Market Situation: Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry has positive growth, with a sharp year - on - year increase in PV installations (future growth may slow), automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Price Outlook: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 81,000 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,189 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 61.93 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 153,950 tons with a daily decrease of 225 tons [2]. Zinc - Market Situation: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automotive production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Price Outlook: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations as the short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus. Key factors to watch include the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,235 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,982 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 26.76 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 50,525 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,925 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,705 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 4.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 485,275 tons with no daily change [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,500 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 460 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,425 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 185.68 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 225,084 tons with a daily increase of 1,932 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 130 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 47.54 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 229,575 tons with a daily decrease of 3,050 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 275,090 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 630 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 34,680 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 132.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,620 tons with a daily increase of 235 tons [2].