Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Macro: China's economy needs government support. Consumption - related policies will continue. Overseas, US inflation is resilient, and the market focuses on the Fed's actions [1]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The US dollar index shows a risk of downward break - out. The RMB against the US dollar is expected to fluctuate weakly and converge to the central parity rate [2]. - Stock Index: The domestic fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the stock index. It will be affected by the Fed's rate - cut decision [4]. - Treasury Bonds: Focus on Sino - US economic talks and the Fed's September meeting. Hold long positions [5]. - Container Shipping: The decline of SCFIS European line has slightly converged. The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate. Short - term intraday operations are recommended [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: Medium - to long - term may be bullish. Short - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][11]. - Copper: It will be in a high - level consolidation. The price may be around 81,000 yuan per ton in the short term [12]. - Aluminum: It will be oscillating strongly. The weekly price range is 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [14]. - Alumina: It will be in a weak operation. Recommend shorting on rallies [15]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It will be oscillating strongly. The price difference with aluminum is between 400 - 500 yuan/ton [16]. - Zinc: It will mainly oscillate [16]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: They are strongly affected by the mining end. Short - term, they are in a bottom - strengthening oscillation [17]. - Tin: It will be in a high - level oscillation around 274,000 yuan per ton [20]. - Lead: It will be in a high - level oscillation. Be cautious about chasing high prices [21]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - level drives upward. The short - term fundamentals are mixed, but the macro - drive is strong, and the price shows an oscillatingly strong trend [24]. - Iron Ore: The shipment has recovered. The price will oscillate within a limited range before the National Day [26]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The overall supply is becoming more relaxed. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [28]. - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: They are supported by cost and will be strong in the short term. Try to go long on specific contracts [29]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical disturbances drive a small rebound. Supply pressure dominates. Recommend shorting on rallies [31]. - LPG: Driven by the macro - level, the price goes up. The external market provides support [33]. - PTA - PX: They oscillate with the cost and the macro - environment. PTA processing fees are expected to be repaired [36]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: They are oscillating strongly in the short term due to macro - warming [37]. - Methanol: Reduce long positions. It may oscillate in the short term [38]. - PP: The downside space is limited. Recommend going long on dips [42]. - PE: The demand recovers slowly. It will maintain an oscillating pattern [45]. - PVC: It is recommended to wait and see. The current fundamentals are poor, but the short - selling willingness of funds is low [46]. - Fuel Oil: It fluctuates with the cost. It is not advisable to continue shorting [46]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month contract [47]. - Asphalt: It is pushed up by the "anti - involution" concept. The short - term peak season is not outstanding. Consider long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes [48]. - Urea: It is in a pattern of having support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [49]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. The price is restricted by high inventory [50]. - Glass: The price lacks a clear trend. Pay attention to supply - side ignition, cost, and demand seasonality [51]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price is weakening. Pay attention to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [52]. - Pulp: It rebounds with the commodity sentiment. Recommend buying on dips [53]. - Propylene: The futures and spot prices diverge. The futures are driven up by the macro - level, while the spot weakens [55]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: Policy disturbances emerge again [56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: China's economic data in August shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". Policies in the consumption field will continue. Overseas, US inflation is resilient, and the market focuses on the Fed's actions [1]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The US dollar index shows a risk of downward break - out. The RMB against the US dollar is expected to fluctuate weakly and converge to the central parity rate. Enterprises are given corresponding exchange - rate operation suggestions [2][3]. - Stock Index: The domestic fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the stock index. It is affected by the Fed's rate - cut decision, but the downward space is limited [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is less affected by the A - share market. The economic data in August is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US economic talks and the Fed's September meeting. Hold long positions [5]. - Container Shipping: The decline of SCFIS European line has slightly converged. The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate. Short - term intraday operations are recommended [7]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: The price rises due to the Fed's easing expectations. The market focuses on the Fed's actions and tariff policies. Long - term, it may be bullish. Short - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [8][11]. - Copper: The price is affected by the US inflation data and the Fed's rate - cut expectations. It will be in a high - level consolidation in the short term [12]. - Aluminum: It is affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and the improvement of fundamentals. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the early peak season [14]. - Alumina: The supply is in an oversupply state. The price may be weak in the short term. Recommend shorting on rallies [15]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum. It will be oscillating strongly [16]. - Zinc: It is mainly oscillating. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is average [16]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: They are strongly affected by the mining end. The fundamentals are stable. Short - term, they are in a bottom - strengthening oscillation [17]. - Tin: It is affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations. It will be in a high - level oscillation around 274,000 yuan per ton in the short term [20]. - Lead: The price reaches a two - month high. The supply is relatively tight, and the demand is average. Short - term, the upward space is limited. Be cautious about chasing high prices [21]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - level drives upward. The current steel inventory is accumulating seasonally. The market has expectations for peak - season demand. The price shows an oscillatingly strong trend [24]. - Iron Ore: The shipment has recovered. The iron - water output has limited room for further increase. The price is expected to oscillate within a limited range before the National Day [26]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The supply is becoming more relaxed. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [28]. - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: They are supported by cost and will be strong in the short term. Try to go long on specific contracts [29]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical disturbances drive a small rebound. Supply pressure dominates. Recommend shorting on rallies [31]. - LPG: Driven by the macro - level, the price goes up. The external market provides support [33]. - PTA - PX: They oscillate with the cost and the macro - environment. PTA processing fees are expected to be repaired [36]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: They are oscillating strongly in the short term due to macro - warming [37]. - Methanol: Reduce long positions. It may oscillate in the short term [38]. - PP: The downside space is limited. Recommend going long on dips [42]. - PE: The demand recovers slowly. It will maintain an oscillating pattern [45]. - PVC: It is recommended to wait and see. The current fundamentals are poor, but the short - selling willingness of funds is low [46]. - Fuel Oil: It fluctuates with the cost. It is not advisable to continue shorting [46]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month contract [47]. - Asphalt: It is pushed up by the "anti - involution" concept. The short - term peak season is not outstanding. Consider long - position allocation after the crude oil stabilizes [48]. - Urea: It is in a pattern of having support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [49]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged. The price is restricted by high inventory [50]. - Glass: The price lacks a clear trend. Pay attention to supply - side ignition, cost, and demand seasonality [51]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price is weakening. Pay attention to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [52]. - Pulp: It rebounds with the commodity sentiment. Recommend buying on dips [53]. - Propylene: The futures and spot prices diverge. The futures are driven up by the macro - level, while the spot weakens [55]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: Policy disturbances emerge again [56].
金融期货早评-20250916
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-16 02:20