工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250916

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon price is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a price drop if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase slightly, and the price is also in high - level consolidation. The high inventory of downstream raw materials makes it difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, which may suppress the price [1]. 3. Summary by Content Industrial Silicon - Price Information: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) was stable at 9,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.63% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. - Supply and Demand: As the silicon price rises, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans; the organic silicon market has supply fluctuations, and silicon alloy enterprises purchase as needed with low inventory - building willingness [1]. - Investment Strategy: Adopt range - bound operations, buy out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon - Price Information: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.12% to 53,545 yuan/ton. The prices of N - type silicon wafers (210mm, 210R, 183mm) increased, while the prices of some battery cells and components remained flat [1]. - Supply and Demand: Silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. The trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and inventory has decreased. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase faces resistance [1]. - Investment Strategy: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]. Industry News - On September 11, the IPO application of China Power Construction New Energy Group Co., Ltd. was accepted. The company plans to raise 9 billion yuan and drive a total investment of 48.481 billion yuan in wind and solar power projects, with an expected new installed capacity of 8.46 million kilowatts [1]. - On September 12, the Ningxia Development and Reform Commission solicited opinions on establishing a generation - side capacity price mechanism. The capacity price standards for coal - fired power units and grid - side new energy storage will be 100 yuan/kilowatt - year from October to December 2025 and 165 yuan/kilowatt - year from January 2026 [1].