沪铝期货日报-20250916

Report Overview - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Shanghai Aluminum Futures - Researcher: Cao Baiquan 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short term, aluminum prices may continue to break through upwards and then fluctuate. The market is focusing on the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week. If a rate cut is implemented, it may further boost non - ferrous metal prices [14] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market: On September 12, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum al2510 contract showed an oscillating upward trend throughout the day, with significant fluctuations during the day session and a positive closing line. The daily trading volume was 165,717 lots, and the open interest was 209,277 lots [2] - Variety Price: The total open interest of 12 Shanghai Aluminum futures contracts was 611,039 lots, an increase of 41,680 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract al2510 increased by 4,695 lots, indicating capital inflow during the upward movement [5] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 12, 2025, the basis of the main contract Shanghai Aluminum al2510 weakened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 21,020 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 21,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 100 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - Macro Information: The global macro - environment has shown positive changes recently, providing upward momentum for the non - ferrous metal market. Weak US economic data has increased market bets on the Fed's rate - cut amplitude. Tensions in the Middle East have raised risk - aversion sentiment, and the strong performance of gold has also driven the non - ferrous metal sector. The fluctuating US dollar index has caused short - term disturbances to dollar - denominated commodities [8] - Fundamental Information: Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is rigid, with high operating rates in major production areas and capacity approaching the limit. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, leading to a decline in shipments, but high port inventories in China ensure sufficient overall supply. Downstream demand is showing signs of improvement with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, more active purchasing by downstream players, a slight increase in orders for aluminum processing plants, and a slight recovery in processing fees for some aluminum products [9] - Technical Analysis: The Shanghai Aluminum 2510 contract showed an increase in open interest and price on the daily chart, breaking through the upper limit of the trading range. The MACD formed a golden cross, the green bars continued to expand, trading volume increased, and long - position funds were active [10]