研究所晨会观点精萃-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope, increasing short - term tariff risks. The market is preparing for the Fed's rate cut this week, leading to a weaker dollar and rising global risk appetite. Domestically, China's consumption, investment, and industrial增加值 in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, with slowing domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance will advance the issuance of part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and take multiple measures to resolve existing implicit debts. Short - term external risk uncertainty is reduced, and domestic easing expectations are enhanced, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious observation is needed; non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious observation is required; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US tariff risk increases, the dollar weakens, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic data is lower than expected, domestic demand slows, but policy expectations are positive, and domestic risk appetite also increases. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and the short - term macro - drive is upward [3]. - Asset trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, black metals are short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as small metals, precious metals, and military industry, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Domestic economic data is weak, but policy expectations are positive, and risk appetite increases. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound on Monday, but trading volume was low. Macroeconomic data in August was weak, increasing anti - involution expectations. Real - world demand is weak, with different trends among varieties. Supply has shown some changes, and the steel market is likely to oscillate in the short term [5]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly on Monday. Iron - making water production increased, and supply is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Monday. Supply is increasing slightly, and the market is in a state of game. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Monday. Supply is increasing, and the pattern of over - supply remains. Demand is weak, and it should be treated with a medium - to - long - term bearish view, while being vigilant about short - term positive impacts [6]. - Glass: The main contract of glass was strong on Monday. Supply is stable, and demand has limited growth. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Macroeconomic factors lead to a weaker dollar and a rise in copper prices. However, considering the global economic slowdown and weakening domestic demand, the upward space is limited [8]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices oscillated on Monday. Inventory increased unexpectedly, and the mid - term upward space is limited, with slow de - stocking expected [8]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. - Tin: Supply is affected by short - term factors, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space is limited [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Monday. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate and stabilize [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon fell slightly on Monday. With rumors of storage and capacity reduction, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is weighing measures to restrict Russian oil and supply - surplus expectations. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the expected Fed rate cut provide short - term support for oil prices [12]. - Asphalt: The price of asphalt rebounded with the rise in oil prices. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the follow - up with oil prices [13]. - PX: The price of PX rebounded slightly. It is in a tight pattern and is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: The price of PTA rebounded slightly. Downstream and terminal开工 rates have different recovery situations, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol sector heated up slightly, but inventory increased, and downstream demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - Short - Fiber: The price of short - fiber adjusted slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upward space is limited, and it can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [14]. - Methanol: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is rising. However, there are some supporting factors, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - PP: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply is still loose. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - LLDPE: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly. With low inventory and a weak market sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. - Urea: Supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term support may come from downstream replenishment [16][17]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The price of US soybeans declined slightly. Export inspection data was better than expected, and Brazilian drought may support the market [18]. - Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal: The domestic short - term supply - demand situation is surplus. The supply pressure of soybean meal is large, and the price is expected to improve in late September and October. Rapeseed meal has high inventory, but there is an upward basis in the later period [19]. - Oils and Fats: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and consumption support is limited. The supply of rapeseed oil decreased. The production of palm oil in Malaysia is affected by floods, and domestic demand is weakening, with increasing inventory [20][21]. - Corn: The initial listing price of new - season corn is chaotic, with a slight year - on - year increase. The price is expected to be strong, and the futures price has low - valuation support [21]. - Pigs: The planned slaughter of large - scale pig farms increased in September, demand has no obvious increase, and the price rebound expectation is reduced. There may be pressure on the price from October to November, which may promote capacity reduction [21].