国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Downward revision of non - farm payrolls [2] - Silver: Breakout upward [2] - Copper: Driven by multiple logics, price increases [2] - Zinc: Maintains a sideways trend [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2] - Tin: Ranges sideways [2] - Aluminum: Ranges sideways; Alumina: Rebounds upward; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, focus on news - related risks at the ore end [2] - Stainless steel: Long - and short - term logics compete, steel prices may fluctuate [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products showed different degrees of increase, such as the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2510 being 0.41%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 increased by 326,453 compared with the previous day. The inventory of some products also changed, like the Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 2,799 kilograms [5]. - Macro and Industry News: There are various news including Sino - US reaching a basic framework consensus on resolving the TikTok issue, China's market regulatory authority investigating NVIDIA for anti - monopoly, and China's economic data in August showing characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption" [5][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 0, silver trend intensity is 0 [9]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.15% during the day and increased by 0.54% during the night session. The trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed, and the inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 5,083 tons [11]. - Macro and Industry News: Investors almost consider the Fed's interest rate cut this week a certainty. The Trump administration announced a reduction in the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15%. Anglo American and Teck Resources agreed to merge, and Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 1 [13]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 0.02%, and the trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased by 5,466 tons [14]. - News: The market regulatory authority investigated NVIDIA for anti - monopoly, and major car companies responded to the "60 - day payment term" initiative [15]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.70%, and the trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed. The inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 68 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 3,950 tons [17]. - News: Investors almost consider the Fed's interest rate cut this week a certainty, and the Trump administration reduced the import tariff on Japanese cars [18]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 0.99% during the day and 0.48% during the night session. The trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed, and the Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 178 tons [21]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to the gold and silver section, there are multiple macro - level news [22]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 100 compared with T - 1. The trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots increased by 1.10 million tons. The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract increased by 21 compared with T - 1 [24]. - Comprehensive News: An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in Qiushi Journal [26]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 1,360 compared with T - 1. The trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed. The price of some nickel - related products and the spread between contracts also changed [27]. - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage, environmental violations were found in the IMIP, and Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [27][28][30]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [33].