铅锌日评20250916：或偏强整理-20250916

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views - Lead: Supply is temporarily tightened, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the pressure on non - ferrous metals is reduced. The lead price has broken through 17,000 yuan/ton. However, limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc remains weak, but the extremely low LME zinc inventory overseas and the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3 support the upward movement of the London zinc price, which in turn boosts Shanghai zinc. With the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation, Shanghai zinc is expected to be in a moderately strong consolidation in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to fundamental constraints [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; futures主力合约收盘价 is 17,160 yuan/ton, up 0.70%; LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) is 2,001.50 dollars/ton, down 0.79%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead price is 8.57, up 1.51%. Futures active contract trading volume is 58,666 hands, down 7.51%; futures active contract open interest is 47,056 hands, down 9.83%. LME inventory is 225,625 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 59,417 tons, down 0.11% [1]. - Fundamentals - Supply: Lead concentrate imports are not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, due to raw materials and losses, the refinery's operating enthusiasm has weakened, and the scope of production cuts has expanded, with the current operating rate below 30% [1]. - Fundamentals - Demand: The terminal market has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect has not been reflected. Dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales. After the lead price broke through 17,000 yuan/ton last Friday, downstream buyers were afraid of high prices, and the purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. - Trading Strategy: Protect the profits of previous long positions [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,160 yuan/ton; futures主力合约收盘价 is 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) is 2,982 dollars/ton, up 0.88%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc price is 7.48, down 0.85%. Futures active contract trading volume is 97,830 hands, down 5.57%; futures active contract open interest is 92,003 hands, down 5.83%. LME inventory is 50,150 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 51,371 tons, up 11.91% [1]. - Fundamentals - Supply: Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend [1]. - Fundamentals - Demand: After the impact of the parade and the SCO Summit dissipates, the downstream enterprises' operating rate has increased significantly, and demand has improved. Also, as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to decline, the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - Trading Strategy: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]