五矿期货农产品早报-20250916

Group 1: Overall Report Information - Report Name: Agricultural Products Morning Report 2025 - 09 - 16 [1] - Report Team: Wukuang Futures Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Protein Meal Core Information - On Monday, US soybeans fell slightly. Sino - US negotiations are ongoing in Spain, and soybean imports are undetermined. Demand concerns pressured US soybeans. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell 20 yuan/ton, with the East China basis at 01 - 110 remaining unchanged. Domestic soybean meal trading was fair, and提货 was at a high level. Last week, downstream inventory days increased by 0.42 days to 9.22 days. According to MYSTEEL, 2.36 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.38 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were almost flat week - on - week and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [3]. - In the US soybean产区, rainfall will be normal in the next two weeks. In August, the soybean good - to - excellent rate declined due to drought, but the USDA only lowered the yield per acre by 0.1 bushels and increased the harvested area by 200,000 acres. In Brazil, the premium declined and then rebounded. Overall, the cost of imported soybeans is supported by the undervaluation of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian planting - season trading, but it also faces pressure from the global protein raw material supply surplus, the potential continuous expansion of Brazil's planting area, and the short - term supply surplus if Sino - US relations ease [3]. Trading Strategy - The cost of soybean imports has recently maintained a weak and stable trend. Pay attention to the cost performance after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market's提货 has been at a high level. It is expected that the spot side may start destocking in September, supporting the oil mill's crushing profit. In the future, focus on whether the improvement of the US soybean situation and Brazilian planting - season trading can marginally improve the current supply - exceeding - demand situation. Regarding the crushing profit, focus on whether the提货 level can be sustained. Trade soybean meal mainly through range - bound operations and wait for a driving factor to choose a direction [5]. Group 3: Oils Important Information - According to a Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and increased by 2.6% in the first 15 days. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 10, 2025, decreased by 3.17% compared to the same period last month. - As of the week ending September 7, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons compared to the previous week. As of September 7, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 516,200 tons. - As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week, a decline of 0.01%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 641,500 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from last week, an increase of 3.58%, and an increase of 128,000 tons compared to 513,500 tons last year, an increase of 24.92% [7]. Market Performance - On Monday, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. The stable demand for oils in importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia provided continuous positive factors. Foreign capital increased long positions in oils on Monday. Domestic spot basis was stable at a low level. The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou was 01 - 80 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 09 + 210 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in East China was 01 + 110 (0) yuan/ton [8]. Trading Strategy - Low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the draft US biodiesel policy boosting soybean oil demand, the insufficient potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, and the expected decline in exportable volume due to the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the central price of oils. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - world supply and demand but tight expected supply. Before the inventories in consuming and producing areas are fully accumulated and the negative feedback of demand in consuming areas does not appear, view them as oscillating and strengthening in the medium term. Currently, the valuation is relatively high. Observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the idea of buying on dips and stabilization [10]. Group 4: Sugar Key Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract of Zheng sugar was 5,549 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,890 - 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,730 - 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotation range was 5,950 - 6,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zheng sugar's main contract (sr2601) was 341 yuan/ton. - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) maintained its second - round production forecast for India's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season at 34.9 million tons. S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey of 11 analysts showed that the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of August is expected to increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons. The expected sugar - cane crushing volume is also expected to increase by 9.5% to 49.5 million tons compared to the same period last year. On the other hand, the sugar content per kilogram of sugar cane is expected to decrease by 4.1% to 149.48 kilograms per ton of sugar cane [12]. Trading Strategy - Domestically, due to increased import supply, poor production and sales data in the main producing areas in August, and the expected increase in production in Guangxi in the new crushing season. Abroad, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased significantly year - on - year in the first half of August. Both the domestic and foreign markets are bearish. The general view on sugar prices remains bearish. The downward space depends on the foreign market. If Brazil's production continues to increase from August to October, the raw - sugar price still has room to fall, and correspondingly, domestic sugar prices may hit new lows [13]. Group 5: Cotton Key Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract of Zheng cotton was 13,885 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,249 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zheng cotton's main contract (CF2601) was 1,364 yuan/ton. - According to Mysteel, as of the week ending September 12, the spinning mill's operating rate was 66.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill's operating rate was 38%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 14.4 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons from the same period last year. According to the USDA's September supply - and - demand report, the global production forecast for the 2025/26 season was increased by 230,000 tons to 25.62 million tons, with China's production forecast increased by 220,000 tons to 7.08 million tons and India's increased by 110,000 tons to 5.23 million tons. The US and Brazilian production forecasts remained unchanged. In terms of consumption, the global forecast was increased by 180,000 tons to 25.87 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 170,000 tons to 15.93 million tons, mainly due to the decrease in the beginning inventory by 220,000 tons and the increase in the consumption forecast [16]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has arrived, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has begun to gradually increase, but it is still lower than the same period in previous years. On the other hand, due to the lack of new supply, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, but there is an expected increase in production in the long term. Bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. Technically, the short - term Zheng cotton price rose and then fell, facing significant selling pressure, but there is also some support below. The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate [17][18]. Group 6: Eggs Spot Information - The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.04 yuan to 3.67 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.6 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.16 yuan to 3.6 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, market demand is normal, and industry players purchase and sell as needed. However, the sales volume varies between high - and low - price areas. It is expected that most of the national egg prices will be stable today, with a few rising or falling [20]. Trading Strategy - The supply base is still large, and there is a large accumulation of cold - storage eggs. After a short - term increase, the spot price is still expected to fall back, but the supply pressure will decrease marginally after a large - scale culling of laying hens. Moreover, after the temperature drops, the conditions for market inventory accumulation improve. If the spot price does not fall as expected under the consensus expectation, it is easy to trigger reverse inventory building, thereby limiting the decline of the spot and futures prices. It is recommended to mainly observe. When the positions increase significantly after a price decline, consider going long on the far - month contract appropriately [21]. Group 7: Pigs Spot Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally fell. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 13.36 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.04 yuan to 12.87 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs is high, the market supply of pigs is abundant, demand is average, and slaughterhouses are cautious in purchasing, providing limited support for pig prices. It is expected that pig prices will be stable with some decreases today [23]. Trading Strategy - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply situation in September remains bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are also accumulating. The spot price may fluctuate within a narrow range and lacks the basis for a large - scale increase or decrease. The market has already priced in the large supply of pigs in advance, and the futures price, especially the near - month contract, has continuously fallen and is at a discount to the spot price. It is not cost - effective to short aggressively. The strategy should focus on the possibility of a rebound at a low level due to policies and consumption factors and short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [24].