贵金属日评：美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the flat year-on-year rate of core CPI in the consumer inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, and Trump's continuous pressure or replacement of Fed officials, along with more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, make the market expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Coupled with geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary by Directory Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold futures' closing price on September 15 was 831.60 yuan/gram, down 2.62 yuan from the previous week and 2.88 yuan from September 9. The trading volume was 262,249, with a decrease of 39,058 from the previous week. The open interest of the active futures contract was 104,349, a decrease of 20,532. The inventory was 53,226 (in ten grams). The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 828.03 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 33,778 and an open interest of 212,400. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -1.72, and the basis between the spot and futures was -3.57 [1] - Silver: Shanghai silver futures' closing price on September 15 was 10,035 yuan/ten grams, down 18 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was -271,791, and the open interest of the active futures contract was 204,407, a decrease of 14,921. The inventory was -3,088 (in ten grams). The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 9,994 yuan/ten grams, with a trading volume of -260,572 and an open interest of 3,477,766. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -143, and the basis between the spot and futures was 1 [1] - International Gold: The closing price of the COMEX futures active contract on September 15 was 3,719.50 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 184,826 and an open interest of 385,713. The inventory was 38,914,490.82 (in troy ounces). The price of London gold spot was 3,651.10 US dollars/ounce. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 974.80 tons, and the holdings of iShare Gold ETF were 2.93 tons. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -3.40, and the basis between the spot and futures was -45.25 [1] - International Silver: The closing price of the COMEX futures active contract on September 15 was 42.68 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 46,674 and an open interest of 133,690. The price of London silver spot was 42.26 US dollars/ounce. The holdings of the US iShare - Silver ETF were 15,069.60 tons. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was -0.42, and the basis between the spot and futures was -0.42 [1] - Price Ratios: The ratio of Shanghai gold to Shanghai silver was 83.02, the ratio of Shanghai gold spot to Shanghai silver spot was 82.85, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 86.24, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 88.22 [1] - Other Commodities and Financial Indicators: INE crude oil was 475.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 0.59 US dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 62.60 US dollars/barrel. Shanghai copper futures were 79,650 yuan/ton, LME spot copper was 10,189 US dollars/ton. Shanghai rebar was 3,127 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 796 yuan/ton. The US dollar index was 97.7357, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1019, and the euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.3327. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and UK FTSE 100 also had corresponding price changes [1] Important Information - The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend the Fed meeting on September 16 - 17 [1] - The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Phillip Swagel said that Trump's tariff policy would reduce the US budget deficit by 4 trillion US dollars in the next decade [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance levels around 3,650 - 3,750/3,840 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 850 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 43 - 46 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 yuan/ten grams [1]