沪铜日评：美联储降息预期和传统消费旺季支撑铜价-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the traditional peak consumption season has led to an initial recovery in downstream demand, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. Traders are advised to mainly lay out long positions after the price retreats, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On September 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,940, a decrease of 120 from the previous day; the trading volume was 68,871 lots, a decrease of 22,685; the open interest was 179,256 lots, a decrease of 7,620; the inventory was 30,643 tons, an increase of 5,083 [2]. - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount: The Shanghai copper basis was 0, an increase of 305; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 80,940, an increase of 185; various copper premium/discount prices showed different changes [2]. - London Copper: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,189, an increase of 121.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.93, an increase of 11.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 158.15, an increase of 9.33; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9439, a decrease of 0.11 [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.719, an increase of 0.05; the total inventory was 305,345 (with a change of - 309,834 compared to a previous value) [2]. Important Information - Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Congo - Kinshasa region have reduced production due to water and electricity supply shortages in September 2025, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Congo - Kinshasa, which poses challenges to the production recovery in the Congo - Kinshasa as most of its copper production uses the mixed - process method [2]. Multi - Empty Logic - Supply Side: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared to last week. The supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates is tight, the supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, leading to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September has increased month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Congo - Kinshasa reduced production in September 2025 due to water and electricity supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Congo - Kinshasa [2]. - Demand Side: The expectation of the traditional peak consumption season has led to a partial recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, but the high copper price suppresses the downstream potential demand [2]. - Inventory Side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy Traders should mainly lay out long positions after the price retreats. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2].