镍与不锈钢日评：反弹空间有限-20250916

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory pressure, so the rebound range of nickel prices is expected to be limited [1]. - For stainless steel, although the fundamentals are loose, there is support at the cost end, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - Futures Prices: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 122,500 yuan/ton, 122,580 yuan/ton, 122,820 yuan/ton, and 122,480 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 700 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, 660 yuan/ton, and 680 yuan/ton compared to September 12 [2]. - Spot Prices: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 123,000 yuan/ton, 1 Jinchuan nickel's average price was 124,000 yuan/ton, and 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel)'s average price was 122,150 yuan/ton [2]. - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel iron mills' loss margins narrowed. In September, domestic and Indonesian nickel iron production increased, and nickel iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [1]. - Demand: Ternary material production decreased; stainless steel mills' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. - Inventory: SHFE inventories increased, LME inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. - LME Market: On September 15, 2025, LME 3 - month nickel's closing price (electronic trading) was 15,391 US dollars/ton, up 34 US dollars/ton. The trading volume was 7,041 lots, an increase of 2,045 lots [2]. Stainless Steel Market - Futures Prices: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,800 yuan/ton, 12,960 yuan/ton, 13,070 yuan/ton, and 13,110 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Spot Prices: 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price was 13,800 yuan/ton, 304/2B coil - rough (Wuxi) average price was 13,250 yuan/ton [2]. - Supply: Stainless steel production increased in September [1]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - Cost: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [1]. - Inventory: SHFE inventories decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventories were 96,600 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons [1]. Industry News - Minmetals Resources (MMG) expects its $500 million acquisition of Anglo American's nickel mine assets to be approved by the EU, although the Brazilian competition regulator has launched an investigation into the deal [1]. Trading Strategies - For nickel, it is recommended to short at high levels after the interest - rate cut is implemented [1]. - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [1].