甲醇日评：焦煤或提振煤化工情绪-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to low - buying opportunities for methanol. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking power of MTO enterprises, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities for the price to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 increased from 2379 yuan/ton on 2025/9/12 to 2396 yuan/ton on 2025/9/15, a rise of 0.71%; MA05 rose from 2385 yuan/ton to 2408 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96%; MA09 soared from 2230 yuan/ton to 2377 yuan/ton, a jump of 6.59% [1]. - Methanol spot prices: Prices in most regions changed slightly. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 0.66%, while those in Shandong, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged. Prices in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.70% and 0.35% respectively [1]. - Coal and natural gas prices: The price of Port Shuohuang Q5500 coal increased by 1.01%, and that of Datong Q5500 coal rose by 2.71%. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained stable [1]. - Profit situation: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 455.20 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - to - methanol stayed at - 382.00 yuan/ton. The profit of East China MTO decreased by 10.70%, while the profit of MTBE increased by 15.53% [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose strongly, opening at 2385 yuan/ton and closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 498,181 lots and a position of 783,891 lots, showing increased volume and reduced positions [1]. - Overseas: Due to the shutdown and maintenance of a small number of methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country, the overall methanol operating rate in that country dropped to 65.45%, an 8 - 9 percentage - point decrease compared to the previous period, but the loading speed at the port was relatively normal [1]. 3.3 Multi - Short Logic - Positive factor: The anti - involution sentiment of coking coal has resurfaced, and the sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the sentiment of the coal - chemical industry to be strong [1]. - Negative factors: The current low - level oscillation of methanol spot prices is mainly due to high port inventory and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which suppress the upward space. In the short term, the upward drive is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventory and the insufficient restocking power of MTO enterprises [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1].