Report Date and Team - Report date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 80,940 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3] - Current volatility: 8.41%, and the historical percentile of current volatility is 6.3% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops: - Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton [3] - Sell 25% of CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases: - Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoint - Copper price strength recently comes from lower - than - expected US inflation data boosting rate - cut expectations. Last week's US CPI and PPI data were within expectations, increasing rate - cut expectations. In the short term, copper price may stay around 81,000 yuan/ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper price may decrease. Fundamentally, the situation of weak supply and demand may continue. The supply - side tightness cannot be resolved in the short term, and demand remains weak. Overall, the copper price will be in a volatile state [4] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The US reaches a tariff policy agreement with other countries [5] - Increased rate - cut expectations lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting non - ferrous metal valuations [5] - The lower support level rises [5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy is unstable [6] - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies [8] - US copper tariff policy adjustments cause extremely high COMEX inventories [8] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 80,940 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 80,940 | - 120 | - 0.15% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 80,900 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 10,189 | 124.5 | 1.24% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.04 | - 0.03 | - 0.37% | [7] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 80,940 | 185 | 0.23% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 80,960 | - 30 | - 0.04% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 80,920 | - 10 | - 0.01% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 81,070 | - 10 | - 0.01% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 80 | - 5 | - 5.88% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium | yuan/ton | 70 | 30 | 75% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | yuan/ton | 95 | 25 | 35.71% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 125 | 35 | 38.89% | [12] Copper Scrap Premium Data | Premium Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current scrap premium (tax - included) | yuan/ton | 2,063.83 | 118.62 | 6.1% | | Reasonable scrap premium (tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,510 | 2.25 | 0.15% | | Price advantage (tax - included) | yuan/ton | 553.83 | 116.37 | 26.6% | | Current scrap premium (tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,800 | 125 | 1.87% | | Reasonable scrap premium (tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,321.4 | 15.61 | 0.25% | | Price advantage (tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 478.6 | 109.39 | 29.63% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 30,643 | 5,083 | 19.89% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | tons | 11,473 | 4,000 | 53.53% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | tons | 1,658 | 77 | 4.87% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total tax - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 30,643 | 5,083 | 19.89% | [21] London Metal Exchange (LME) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | tons | 152,625 | - 1,325 | - 0.86% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | tons | 22,575 | - 50 | - 0.22% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | tons | 130,050 | - 1,275 | - 0.97% | | LME copper inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 135,450 | 2,225 | 1.67% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 17,175 | - 3,550 | - 17.13% | [23] COMEX | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | tons | 311,847 | 6,068 | 1.98% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 149,213 | 779 | 0.83% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 162,634 | 136 | 0.08% | [24] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | yuan/ton | - 138.53 | - 121.84 | 730.02% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 41.4 | 0 | 0% | [25]
铜产业风险管理日报-20250916
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-16 02:56