铜：多重逻辑驱动，价格上涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Copper prices are driven by multiple logics and are expected to rise [1] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 80,940, a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price was 81,380, a night - session increase of 0.54%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,189 yesterday, a daily increase of 1.24% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 68,871, a decrease of 22,685 from the previous day, and the open interest was 179,256, a decrease of 7,620. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 17,033, a decrease of 3,558, and the open interest was 295,000, an increase of 3,191 [1] - Futures Inventory: The Shanghai Copper futures inventory yesterday was 30,643, an increase of 5,083. The LME Copper inventory was 152,625, a decrease of 1,325, and the注销仓单 ratio was 11.25%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - Price Spreads: The LME Copper basis was - 61.93 yesterday, an increase of 11.49 from the previous day; the bonded - area warrant premium was 55, a decrease of 1; the bonded - area bill premium was 58, a decrease of 1; the price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 74,300, an increase of 100; the spot - to - near - month futures spread was 80, a decrease of 5; the near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was 60, a decrease of 240; the cost of the calendar spread arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first contract was 226 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: Investors almost consider the Fed's interest - rate cut this week a certainty, and the Nasdaq has reached a record closing high for six consecutive trading days. The Trump administration announced that the import tariff on Japanese cars will be lowered to 15% starting from 00:01 on the 16th, Eastern Time [1] - Industry News: Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources, which will be the largest mining merger in more than a decade. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year to 228,007 tons, and the production in the first seven months of 2025 was about 1.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia of Freeport McMoRan remains shut down due to rescue efforts for 7 trapped workers. Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine, and the negotiation is expected to start at the end of this year or early next year [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with the range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3]