国泰君安期货所长早读-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The construction of a unified national market is a major decision of the Party Central Committee, with the basic requirement of "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as glass, coal, and steel may be affected by policies and market sentiment, showing different trends [7][8][10] - The market generally anticipates a new round of policy easing due to the characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption" in China's economic data in August [21] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1所长首推 (Director's Top Picks) - Glass: The later period may show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Overnight prices rose significantly, and the market's anti - deflation and anti - involution factors resurfaced. Spot sales have improved to some extent. Although there are still bearish factors such as weak real estate, weak basis, and warehouse receipt pressure, these factors are approaching their limits after the 09 delivery. It is not advisable to be overly bearish before the policy is falsified [8][9] - Coking Coal and Coke: They are expected to maintain a strong - trending pattern due to policy expectations and pre - National Day replenishment. The current market shows a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, and prices being strong". The price bottom has emerged, and the price center is expected to gradually rise [10] 3.2商品研究 (Commodity Research) - Precious Metals (Gold and Silver): Gold shows a downward - revised non - farm employment trend, and silver breaks through and moves upward. The fundamentals of precious metals show various price changes and trading volume fluctuations. Relevant macro - news includes Sino - US consensus on TikTok, antitrust investigations on NVIDIA, and China's economic data release [17][18][21] - Copper: Driven by multiple logics, the price is rising. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are significant mergers and acquisitions and production - related news in the industry [24][26] - Zinc: It maintains a volatile pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as antitrust investigations on NVIDIA and payment - term commitments by automobile companies [27][28][29] - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as market expectations of Fed rate cuts [30][31] - Tin: It fluctuates within a range. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are various macro - news such as Sino - US consensus on TikTok [33][34][35] - Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum fluctuates within a range, alumina rebounds upward, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market [37][39] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The contradiction in the smelting end of nickel is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the mining end. Stainless steel prices may fluctuate due to the game between long - and short - term logics. There are industry - related news such as project production starts and environmental violations in Indonesia [40][41][46] - Lithium Carbonate: The long - term demand may exceed expectations, and it shows a volatile pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are industry - related news such as the release of the automobile industry's growth - stabilization plan [47][48][49] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment for industrial silicon has fermented again, and the sentiment for polysilicon has reignited, with the futures price likely to continue rising. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about a solar - cell project investment in Xinjiang [50][51][53] - Iron Ore: The price shows a volatile and upward - trending pattern with repeated expectations. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about China's monetary data [54][55] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The anti - involution sentiment has resurfaced, and both show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market and steel production and trade data [58][59][61] - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: Boosted by macro - sentiment, they show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news about ferrosilicon and manganese silicide prices and steel production data [62][63][64] - Coke and Coking Coal: They show a wide - range volatile pattern with repeated expectations. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market [65][66] - Logs: They show a repeated volatile pattern [68]