黑色板块日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" policy hype in the black sector has led to general price increases. For the steel market, there are differences in the demand recovery between rebar and hot - rolled coils, with the former being slower and the latter faster. For the iron ore market, the supply is at a high level, and the port inventory shows signs of stabilization. Technical breakthroughs need further observation [2][5]. - In the steel market, the policy aims to rectify low - price and disorderly competition, promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and guide enterprises to improve product quality [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Policy Impact: The publication of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article in Qiushi magazine triggers market speculation about the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, with a consistent policy tone compared to the article on July 1 [2]. - Supply and Demand: Rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease, apparent demand has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and social inventory has increased for nine consecutive weeks. The total production of five major steel products has decreased by 3.4 million tons week - on - week, factory inventory has decreased by 3.5 million tons, social inventory has increased by 17.4 million tons, and total inventory has increased by 13.9 million tons. Apparent demand has increased by 15.5 million tons week - on - week, with the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increasing by 20.8 million tons. Currently, the demand for rebar recovers slowly, while that for hot - rolled coils recovers quickly [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: Rebar has broken through the pressure of the upper 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, and hot - rolled coils have broken through the pressure of the middle Bollinger Band, showing a short - term strong rebound [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing up, and treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Market Trend: The resurgence of "anti - involution" speculation has led to a general rise in the black sector, and iron ore has followed suit. The profitability of sample steel mills has recently declined, mainly due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventory shows signs of stabilization, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [5]. - Technical Analysis: After the 01 contract forms an upward breakthrough, it enters an oscillation state. Whether it is a real breakthrough remains to be seen [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. If the upward breakthrough is proven to be a false one, try to enter the market to short. If an upward effective breakthrough is formed, consider short - term and light - position long - buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - Production Data: In August, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; and steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [7]. - Tariff Policy: The United States has opened a "tariff inclusion window" for steel and aluminum under Section 232, planning to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives [8]. - Coal Mine Shutdown: Two coal mines in Shanxi have shut down, with uncertain复产 times. One in Lvliang Zhongyang has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons, and the other in Linfen Guxian has a production capacity of 0.9 million tons [8]. - Iron Ore Shipment: From September 8th to September 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.169 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.778 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.482 million tons [8]. - Coke Price Adjustment: On September 15th, steel mills in the Hebei market lowered the coke purchase price by 50/55 yuan per ton [9]. - Steel Inventory: In early September 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.82 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 million tons, or 5.6% [10].