中辉期货豆粕日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term decline: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, they are expected to have a short - term decline due to factors like increased inventory and unfavorable data [1]. - Short - term decline adjustment: Palm oil and soybean oil are in a short - term decline adjustment phase. Although there are positive factors in the fundamentals of palm oil, current data such as inventory and export affect its price. For soybean oil, bio - diesel policy obstacles and high inventory are the main reasons [1]. - Short - term adjustment: Rapeseed oil is in a short - term adjustment state, affected by Sino - Canadian trade disputes and Sino - Australian trade development [1]. - Cautious bullish: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the US cotton export demand is weak, the supply in the Chinese market is still tight before the new cotton is listed, and the USDA has further lowered China's new - year inventory - to - sales ratio [1]. - Cautious bearish: Jujube is cautiously bearish. The new - season jujube is expected to have a reduced yield, but the reduction is not as large as in 2023/24, and there is still pressure considering the carry - over inventory [1]. - Cautious bullish: For live pigs, the spot and near - month contracts have limited further decline space, and the far - month contracts are expected to rise with the reduction of production capacity over time [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Different Varieties Soybean Meal - Price and Inventory: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.5 million tons week - on - week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 733.2 million tons, up 1.5 million tons week - on - week; the soybean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, up 2.82 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3042 yuan/ton, down 1.20% from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 3062.29 yuan/ton, down 0.56% [2][3]. - Market Analysis: The USDA September supply - demand report was slightly bearish for US soybeans. The increase in soybean meal inventory and unfavorable domestic and foreign data led to a decline in the price, but the decline space was limited due to the proximity to the spot price and Sino - US trade issues [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Price and Inventory: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract closed at 2504 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 2665.26 yuan/ton, down 1.75% [5][7]. - Market Analysis: Trade policies and high inventory made the factors for rapeseed meal mixed. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation was still ongoing, and the rapeseed meal trend mainly followed that of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the results of recent Sino - Canadian meetings [1][7]. Palm Oil - Price and Inventory: As of September 12, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract closed at 9422 yuan/ton, up 1.36% from the previous day. The national average price was 9398 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [8][9]. - Market Analysis: The bio - diesel policy in the US encountered obstacles, and the inventory in Malaysia increased in August, with average export data in the first 15 days of September. However, considering the unchanged fundamentals of biodiesel, attention should be paid to the opportunity of bullish after the adjustment [1][9]. Cotton - Price and Inventory: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2601 closed at 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day, and the domestic spot price rose 0.01% to 15256 yuan/ton. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 127 million tons [10][11]. - Market Analysis: The US cotton soil moisture weakened, but the export demand was still weak. In the Chinese market, the supply was still tight before the new cotton was listed, and the USDA further lowered China's new - year inventory - to - sales ratio. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand was weak. Before the new cotton was listed in large quantities, range - bound operations were recommended [1][13]. Jujube - Price and Inventory: The jujube main contract CJ2601 closed at 10865 yuan/ton, down 2.90% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample points was 9321 tons, down 89 tons week - on - week [14][15]. - Market Analysis: The new - season jujube was expected to have a reduced yield, but the reduction was not as large as in 2023/24. After considering the carry - over inventory, there might not be an obvious supply - demand gap. The demand for stocking was not obvious. It was recommended to be cautious in trading on the futures market and look for short - selling opportunities when the market was hyped [1][16]. Live Pig - Price and Inventory: The live pig main contract Lh2511 closed at 13275 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day, and the domestic live pig spot price rose 0.07% to 13510 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise's live pig存栏量 was 3782.4 million tons, up 0.51% month - on - month [17][18]. - Market Analysis: In the short term, the supply pressure was strong. In the medium term, the live pig出栏量 was expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity was gradually being reduced. The demand was expected to improve in the future. The spot and near - month contracts had limited decline space, and the far - month contracts were expected to rise over time [1][19].