黑色金属数据日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The risk appetite of funds has improved, and the industry is waiting for the confirmation of the peak demand in the peak season. There is a possibility of improvement in both supply and demand of steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. However, there are concerns about the high inventory of building materials. Futures prices are neutrally valued, and the price upward - driving force is not strong for now. Attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can accelerate in the next two weeks [2]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Market sentiment has improved, but there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from loss to profit, with increased supply. Terminal demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" needs to be verified, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace start - up rates, which may impact the demand for the two alloys [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The expectation of coal - mine over - production inspection has resurfaced. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Although the black fundamentals are weakening marginally, the bottom support for coking coal and coke is relatively strong under the influence of domestic policy expectations and overseas interest - rate cuts. Pre - holiday inventory replenishment is approaching, and the previous long positions should be held [5]. - Iron Ore: During the inventory - replenishment period, iron ore has support, but its price increase height depends on the strength of steel demand. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress the price increase. A long - at - low strategy is maintained in the long term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On September 15, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3205.00 yuan/ton with a 42.00 yuan increase (1.33% increase), HC2605 at 3374.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.87% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3136.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.93% increase), HC2601 at 3370.00 yuan/ton with a 29.00 yuan increase (0.87% increase) [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 69.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a - 13.00 yuan change. The roll - screw spread was 234.00 yuan/ton, with a - 3.00 yuan change. The screw - ore ratio was 3.94, with a 0.03 change, etc. [1] Spot Market - Steel: The spot price of Shanghai thread steel (HRB400 20mm) was 3260.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a 12.50 yuan increase. The spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, with a 10.00 yuan increase [1]. - Alloys and Other Materials: The spot price of Qingdao Port super - special powder was 700.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a 9.00 yuan increase. The spot price of Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) was 1480.00 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Investment Strategies - Steel: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Pay attention to the contraction of the roll - screw spread of the 01 contract for disk arbitrage. Consider reverse arbitrage for spot - futures trading (end - user buying hedging) [7]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Industrial customers should pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Hold the previous long positions [7]. - Iron Ore: Continue the strategy of going long at low prices [7].