镍基本面梳理及后市展望：谷底盘桓，曙光未现-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel remains in an oversupply situation in the medium - to - long term, with demand mainly relying on battery - end increments and supply being affected by Indonesian policies and project commissioning speed [118]. - Macroeconomic factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies, along with the domestic "anti - involution" narrative, will influence nickel prices. The fundamental situation shows that the oversupply of primary nickel is hard to change, and nickel prices are hovering at the bottom [119]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Aspects - The Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September is almost certain, but the subsequent interest - rate cut path is unclear. The market should focus on the Fed's September FOMC meeting, dot plot, economic forecasts, and Powell's statements [15]. - The US employment situation has deteriorated significantly, with the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021, while inflation is rising steadily, increasing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude [16]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI performs well [17]. - China's economy showed better - than - expected performance in the first half of 2025, but some macro data have weakened recently. The government's policy orientation focuses on five key areas, and the "anti - involution" policy has been intensified, which may have a phased impact on industrial product prices [20][25]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Philippine nickel ore shipments are at a peak, and port nickel ore inventories are seasonally increasing. In July 2025, nickel ore imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the port inventory increased by 50.1% compared to mid - year [32]. - Indonesian nickel ore premiums are at a high level, and imports from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB approval policy needs attention, and the import volume of Philippine nickel ore by Indonesia is expected to reach 13 million wet tons in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 24.16% [39]. - Indonesian nickel - related policies have a significant impact on the industry. Policies such as export foreign - exchange control, adjustment of metal - mineral pricing methods, and shortening of RKAB quota approval years have increased the operating costs of Chinese - funded enterprises in Indonesia and affected the production and pricing of nickel products [43]. - China's nickel - iron production is generally declining, but prices have rebounded slightly recently. From January to August 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased by 6.42% year - on - year, and prices rebounded from 900 yuan/nickel to around 955 yuan/nickel [52]. - Indonesian nickel - iron production continues to increase, and China's nickel - iron imports are rising, with Indonesia accounting for 97.5% of imports. From January to August 2025, Indonesian nickel - iron production increased by 24.81% year - on - year, and from January to July, China's nickel - iron imports increased by 16.3% year - on - year [60]. - The expansion of Indonesian NPI capacity has slowed down significantly, and attention should be paid to policy disturbances. The number of projects to be commissioned is decreasing, and profit conditions and policies will affect the commissioning progress [61]. - Indonesian nickel intermediate product supply continues to increase, with MHP production increasing significantly, ice - nickel production decreasing, and imports of both maintaining an upward trend. From January to August 2025, Indonesian MHP production increased by 58.76% year - on - year, and ice - nickel production decreased by 15.25% year - on - year [64]. - Indonesian nickel intermediate product capacity is still being commissioned. In 2025 - 2026, there are many MHP and ice - nickel projects to be commissioned, such as the Green Aiko and MMP projects [66]. - China's refined - nickel production has increased significantly, and global capacity is still in an expansion cycle. In 2025, China's estimated refined - nickel production is 440,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.5%. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of domestic and Indonesian projects [72]. - In terms of imports and exports, China's refined - nickel imports are mainly from Russia and Indonesia, and exports are mainly to LME delivery warehouses. From January to July 2025, imports increased by 189.27% year - on - year, and exports increased by 78.18% year - on - year [73]. - In terms of valuation, the valuation of pure nickel is anchored to the integrated production cost of electrowinning nickel. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel is relatively low, around 111,000 - 116,000 yuan/ton as of August 2025 [83]. Demand Side - Stainless - steel production is increasing year by year, and steel mills maintain a relatively high production schedule. From January to August 2025, stainless - steel production increased by 5.54% year - on - year, and Indonesian stainless - steel production increased by 0.08% year - on - year [88]. - The "rush - to - export" effect still exists, and stainless - steel demand maintains a certain level of resilience. From January to July 2025, domestic stainless - steel apparent consumption increased by 3.5% year - on - year, and it is expected to maintain a 3% growth rate for the whole year [89]. - The MHP coefficient is strong, and nickel - sulfate production remains stable. From January to July 2025, China's nickel - sulfate production increased by 0.1% year - on - year [95]. - The proportion of ternary batteries in new - energy vehicles is low, and the growth rate of nickel demand from the new - energy sector has slowed down. From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries accounted for 18.7% of the total, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.7% [111]. Inventory - Overseas LME nickel inventory is expected to continue to increase. As of September 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory increased by 5.48% compared to mid - year [115]. - China's domestic social inventory has decreased overall this year but increased slightly in the second half of the year. As of September 5, 2025, it increased by 7.1% compared to mid - year [115]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - Global primary nickel supply continues to increase, while demand shows mixed trends. Stainless - steel demand maintains some resilience, but there is a risk of weakening downstream orders. The new - energy sector has limited incremental demand for nickel, and the long - term focus is on the demand from solid - state batteries [117]. - Nickel remains in an oversupply situation. In the medium - to - long term, demand growth depends on the battery sector, and supply is affected by Indonesian policies and project commissioning speed [118]. - Macroeconomic uncertainties and fundamental oversupply will keep nickel prices hovering at the bottom. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to mining - end news and macro changes, and the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation of pure nickel [119].