Report Industry Investment Ratings No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some products are as follows: - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Expected to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Expected to be strong [1] - Nickel: Short - term bullish, long - term bearish pressure exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term bullish, suggest short - term operation [1] - Tin: Expected to strengthen in shock [1] - Palm oil: Long - term bullish, short - term risk of correction [1] - Rapeseed oil: Suggest 11 - 1 positive spread strategy [1] - PTA: No clear rating, but downstream situation is positive [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Market liquidity has weakened its driving force on stock index futures. With dense macro events this week, it is recommended to control risks in stock index futures positions and adjust for long - positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support for gold prices, which may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1]. - US CPI inflation data meets expectations, removing obstacles for the Fed rate cut. Along with the approaching consumption peak season, copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the Fed rate cut expectation is rising, and the market is concerned about the fourth - quarter nickel ore quota approval in Indonesia. Different metals have different trends based on their fundamentals [1]. - For black metals, supply surplus pressure remains, and although there is marginal improvement in peak - season demand, prices are under pressure [1]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends. For example, cotton supply may be tight in the short term, while sugar prices are expected to be weak in shock [1]. - For energy and chemical products, various factors such as device operation, supply and demand, and cost affect the price trends of different products [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index futures: Control risks in positions and adjust for long - positions due to weakened liquidity driving force and dense macro events [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Gold: Supported by the approaching Fed rate cut, may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1]. - Silver: Bullish [1]. - Copper: May be strong due to meeting inflation expectations and approaching consumption peak season [1]. - Aluminum: Expected to be strong with the Fed rate cut expectation and approaching consumption peak season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the price is close to the cost line, with limited downward space [1]. - Zinc: Narrow rebound due to improved macro sentiment but pressured by increasing social inventory [1]. - Nickel: Short - term shock and bullish, but long - term surplus pressure exists [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term shock and bullish, wait for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Expected to strengthen in shock with improved demand in the peak season [1]. Black metals - Rebar: Valuation returns to neutral, industry driving force is unclear, and macro driving force is warm, with a shock trend [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - Iron ore: Shock trend due to unfavorable short - term fundamentals [1]. - Glass: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Soda ash: Weak reality, supply surplus, and price pressure [1]. - Coal and coke: Fundamentals are weakening, with a shock and weakening trend [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: Short - term correction risk, long - term bullish, wait for callback to go long [1]. - Soybean: Pay attention to the adjustment of new - crop soybean yield per unit in the US, and the long - term bullish logic for oils in the fourth quarter remains [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Suggest 11 - 1 positive spread strategy [1]. - Cotton: Short - term supply may be tight, and the acquisition game during the new - cotton acquisition period is the focus [1]. - Sugar: Expected to be weak in shock, with limited short - term downward space [1]. - Corn: Expected to be weak in the short term due to negative news and new - grain selling pressure [1]. - Soybean meal: Maintains range - bound shock in the short term, and pay attention to Sino - US policy changes later [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially shown, but there is no bullish driving force yet [1]. - Log: Weak shock due to unchanged fundamentals and falling external quotes [1]. - Live pigs: Supply continues to increase, downstream acceptance is limited, and the overall is weak [1]. Energy and chemical products - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed rate cut expectation [1]. - Fuel oil: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1]. - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material cost and decreasing inventory [1]. - BR rubber: Pay attention to inventory de - stocking progress and autumn device maintenance [1]. - PTA: Production increases, basis declines rapidly, and downstream profits are repaired [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Basis strengthens, but new device production and hedging pressure exist [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices return, and market delivery willingness weakens [1]. - Pure benzene and styrene: Supply increases after maintenance, and domestic import pressure increases [1]. - PF: Price is weak in shock [1]. - PP: Market returns to fundamentals, with increasing supply pressure [1]. - PVC: Peak - season performance is not as expected, and inventory accumulates [1]. - Caustic soda: Weak in short - term shock [1]. - LPG: Suppressed by bearish fundamentals despite production increase [1]. Others - Container shipping: Supply in September exceeds the same - period level, and freight rates are declining [1].
日度策略参考-20250916
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-16 03:47