中辉期货热卷早报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bullish [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: Hold long positions [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish [1][12][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish [1][16][17] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Bullish [1][20][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti-involution narrative continues to boost market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up steel prices. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are relatively stable, while the downstream demand for rebar has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. The iron ore market has a strong fundamental situation, with rising iron production and decreasing arrivals of foreign ores. The coking coal market is also strong, with increasing production and high imports. The coke market follows the trend of coking coal. The ferromanganese market is supported by rigid demand from iron production, and the ferrosilicon market follows the coal price trend, but the high level of warehouse receipts restricts price increases [1][4][8]. 3. Summaries by Variety Steel - Rebar: The anti-involution narrative boosts market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up prices. Iron production has returned to pre-parade levels, but rebar production and apparent demand have decreased, and inventory has increased. Currently in the demand verification stage, downstream demand has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. Policy expectations drive the market to be strong [1][4][5]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Production and apparent demand have increased, and inventory is basically stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the anti-involution expectation boosts market confidence, leading to a strong market [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron production has recovered rapidly. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profits and production cuts. Port inventory has increased, and steel mills have slightly replenished their stocks. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have decreased significantly, and the fundamental situation is strong. The ore price is oscillating upwards [1][8][9]. Coke - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, and coking coal leads the black series to rise. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and coking profits have decreased, but coke production is relatively stable. Iron production has increased significantly, and the demand for raw materials is high. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows the trend of coking coal [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, strengthening market confidence. Coking coal production has increased slightly, and Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron production has also increased significantly, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased, and there is no significant short-term supply-demand contradiction. The market is strong under a favorable policy environment [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys - Ferromanganese: In the context of production resumption in the production areas, supply pressure continues to increase. The recovery of iron production provides rigid support for the demand for ferromanganese. Attention should be paid to the new round of replenishment by steel mills. The supply-demand contradiction has yet to accumulate, and the cost side strongly supports the price. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the price up [1][20][21]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. Warehouse receipts are on a downward trend from a high level, but the absolute value is still high, restricting price increases. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the market to follow the coal price trend [1][20][21].