Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PP: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PVC: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Short-Term Rebound [3] - Soda Ash: Short-Term Rebound [3] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market do not change the situation of oversupply, and the oil price is trending downward. The cost of LPG has insufficient upward momentum, and a bearish outlook is maintained. The market sentiment for L, PP, PVC, and glass has improved, and attention is paid to the basis repair. The supply of PX and PTA is expected to be tight in balance, while the supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and caution is exercised. Methanol and urea are expected to have limited downside, and long positions are considered. The price of natural gas has fallen, and asphalt is under pressure [1][2][3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.11%, Brent rising 0.67%, and SC rising 1.66% [4]. - Basic Logic: The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, and OPEC+ plans to increase production, leading to increased supply pressure. The U.S. crude oil consumption peak season has ended, and the demand support for oil prices is gradually decreasing. In the medium to long term, there is a high probability that the price will be pressured to around $60 [5]. - Fundamentals: The attack on the Russian port by Ukraine led to a short-term rebound in oil prices. OPEC predicts that the global oil demand growth rate will remain at 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have increased [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the break-even point of new shale oil wells around $60. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [485 - 500] [7]. LPG - Market Review: On September 15, the PG main contract closed at 4,513 yuan/ton, up 1.51% month-on-month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [9]. - Basic Logic: The cost of upstream crude oil has downward potential, and LPG is under pressure. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has increased [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Add short positions. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4450 - 4550] [11]. L - Market Review: The L main contract closed at 7,209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [14]. - Basic Logic: The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, but the upward drive is insufficient. This week's production has declined, and it is expected to rebound next week. The demand for agricultural films is increasing, and attention is paid to inventory destocking [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for dips to buy. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7150 - 7250] [16]. PP - Market Review: The PP main contract closed at 6,939 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [19]. - Basic Logic: The cost support is insufficient. The production has increased, but it is expected to decline this week. The downstream demand is entering the peak season, and the raw material demand is gradually increasing [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for dips to buy. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] [21]. PVC - Market Review: The PVC main contract closed at 4,847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [24]. - Basic Logic: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased for 12 consecutive weeks. The production is expected to decline next week. The export is expected to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains [26]. - Strategy Recommendation: Do not chase short positions. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4800 - 4900] [26]. PX - Market Review: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The PX11 contract closed at 6,712 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton [30]. - Basic Logic: The supply-side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The demand-side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has increased the load in the short term. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is still high [31]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips for intraday short-term and hold short positions at high levels. PX511 is recommended to focus on the range of [6750 - 6850] [32]. PTA - Market Review: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. The TA01 contract closed at 4,648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [34]. - Basic Logic: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure has increased due to the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices and the expected new device production. The market has expectations for the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" consumption peak season, and the demand is slightly better [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: Stop loss on short positions and focus on opportunities to expand the PTA processing fee. Buy on dips for intraday short-term [35]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton. The EG01 contract closed at 4,319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton [38]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have changed little. The arrival and import volumes are still low. The market has expectations for the consumption peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, which supports the price. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, and the price is oscillating weakly [39]. - Strategy Recommendation: Stop loss on short positions and focus on opportunities to short at high levels. EG01 is recommended to focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] [40]. Methanol - Market Review: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The methanol main contract closed at 2,379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [41]. - Basic Logic: The methanol device maintenance has increased, and the start-up load has decreased slightly. The overseas device load has declined but is still at a high level, and the import volume is high. The demand has slightly stopped falling, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate. The cost support is slightly stable [42]. - Strategy Recommendation: Do not short but focus on opportunities to buy on dips for the 01 contract. MA01 is recommended to focus on the range of [2390 - 2420] [44]. Urea - Market Review: Not provided in the text. - Basic Logic: The short-term supply of urea is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, and the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of urea is not high [2]. - Strategy Recommendation: The urea futures price is under pressure. Focus on opportunities to buy on dips for the 01 contract in the medium to long term [2]. Natural Gas - Market Review: Not provided in the text. - Basic Logic: The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the natural gas price has fallen. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand, and the winter gas storage has supported the price [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Not provided in the text. Asphalt - Market Review: Not provided in the text. - Basic Logic: The cost of crude oil has rebounded after OPEC+ increased production, but the supply is in excess, and the price is weak. The supply and demand are generally loose, and the valuation is high [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [3]. Glass - Market Review: Not provided in the text. - Basic Logic: The market sentiment has improved, and the enterprise inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. The new production line has been ignited, and the supply is under pressure. The terminal demand is still weak, and attention is paid to inventory destocking [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short-term long positions are recommended [3]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Not provided in the text. - Basic Logic: The market sentiment has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The demand is mostly for rigid needs, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short-term long positions are recommended, and medium to long-term short positions are considered [3].
中辉能化观点-20250916
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-16 03:40