新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-16）-20250916

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Upward [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level sideways [4] - Silver: High-level sideways [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a weak bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a weak bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a weak bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a weak bias [7] - Live pigs: Sideways with a strong bias [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Sideways [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is supported by increased demand from the recovery of molten iron production and potential restocking by steel mills before the holiday, with the 2601 contract expected to test the previous high [2]. - The coking coal and coke futures have rebounded due to potential supply shortages and the approaching peak season, despite the second round of price cuts for coke [2]. - The rebar market faces high supply and weak demand, but the "anti-involution" expectation and rising costs may drive short-term strength in the 2601 contract [2]. - The glass futures have risen due to stronger upstream fuel prices and improved macro sentiment, but the market's supply-demand contradiction remains, and the key lies in the cold repair path [2]. - The stock index market has rebounded, with investors advised to control risk appetite and hold long positions, while the bond market is affected by interest rate fluctuations, and investors are recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The gold market is influenced by central bank gold purchases, the US debt issue, interest rates, and geopolitical risks, and is expected to remain high-level sideways [4]. - The log market has stable spot prices, reduced supply pressure, and increased daily shipments, and is expected to trade in a range [6]. - The pulp market has cost support but weak demand, and is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - The offset paper market has stable production but poor demand, and is recommended to be treated bearishly [6]. - The oil and fat market faces supply pressure but potential demand growth, and is expected to trade in a wide range [6]. - The soybean meal and related products market has high supply and weak demand, and is expected to be weak sideways [6][7]. - The live pig market has slightly increased average transaction weight and slaughter rate, but the supply of standard pigs may increase and put pressure on prices [7]. - The rubber market has reduced supply pressure, increased demand, and declining inventory, and is expected to trade sideways [9]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by geopolitical factors, supply-demand changes, and cost fluctuations, and are recommended to be observed [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased, molten iron production recovered, and steel mills' profit margins declined, but the short-term supply-demand contradiction is limited, and the 2601 contract may test the previous high [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Supply may be tight in the second half of the year, and the approaching peak season has boosted the futures market, despite the price cuts for coke [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is increasing, but the "anti-involution" expectation and rising costs may drive short-term strength [2]. - Glass: The futures have risen due to stronger fuel prices and improved sentiment, but the supply-demand contradiction persists, and the key is the cold repair path [2]. - Soda ash: The market is expected to rebound, but the real estate industry's adjustment may affect demand [2]. Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The market has rebounded, with different performances among various indices, and investors are advised to control risk and hold long positions [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: Interest rate fluctuations have affected the bond market, and investors are recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - Gold and silver: The gold market is influenced by central bank purchases, the US debt issue, interest rates, and geopolitical risks, and is expected to remain high-level sideways [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Spot prices are stable, supply pressure is low, and daily shipments have increased, and the market is expected to trade in a range [6]. - Pulp: Cost support and weak demand coexist, and the market is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production is stable, but demand is poor, and the market is recommended to be treated bearishly [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The market faces supply pressure but potential demand growth, and is expected to trade in a wide range [6]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: High supply and weak demand, and the market is expected to be weak sideways [6]. - Soybean No. 2 and Soybean No. 1: High supply and uncertain demand, and the market is expected to be weak sideways [7]. Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: Average transaction weight and slaughter rate have slightly increased, but the supply of standard pigs may increase and put pressure on prices [7]. Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: Supply pressure has decreased, demand has increased, and inventory has declined, and the market is expected to trade sideways [9]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: Affected by geopolitical factors, supply-demand changes, and cost fluctuations, and recommended to be observed [9].