债市专题研究：如何更好的理解基本面交易？

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current macro - economic supply - demand imbalance persists, and the transmission of anti - involution policy effects is asymmetric. - Fundamental trading has two sides, usually more focused on long - term logic, and attention should be paid to the expectation gap. Although the current fundamentals are not the core contradiction of stock - bond trading, their anchoring effect on the bond market cannot be ignored. There is still a certain investment cost - effectiveness for 10 - year treasury bonds with a yield above 1.80% [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to View the Current Economic Fundamentals - In recent years, the problem of supply exceeding demand in the domestic economy has been prominent. External demand led by exports in the first half of the year was an important factor driving economic growth. In the second half of the year, the demand side declined overall, and the growth rate of the production side also showed signs of decline. The asymmetry of policy effects may be the main cause of short - term economic fluctuations. - On one hand, anti - involution has a direct impact on the production side, similar to capacity reduction through administrative means during the supply - side reform, which may be the main reason for the decline in the growth rate of fixed - asset investment in July and August, and industrial production may also be affected. On the other hand, against the background of relatively weak demand, the effect of anti - involution on boosting prices still needs further transmission. The short - term PPI growth rate may bottom out, but the CPI growth rate unexpectedly declined in August [2]. How to Understand Fundamental Trading - Fundamental trading has two sides, and the same data may have completely opposite interpretations. For example, after the release of economic data on March 17 and April 16, 2025, although the economic data was better than expected, the TL contract showed different intraday trends, which makes it difficult to grasp the market's mainstream expectations for fundamental data and its impact [3]. - Fundamental trading is more of a long - term rather than a short - term logic, and its role is more to support rather than drive. Economic fundamental variables are mostly slow - changing variables with relatively low update frequencies. Investors usually need to form fundamental expectations based on multi - month data, which determines that fundamental trading is more long - term. The impact of fundamentals on bond prices is more of a support, and the relationship between positive economic data for the bond market and bond market rallies is "necessary but not sufficient" [3]. - The long - term logical nature of fundamental trading determines that the expectation gap may be the main factor affecting fundamental trading. Data that conforms to the long - term market fundamental expectations may cause a relatively flat market reaction, while data that deviates from the long - term expectations may catalyze short - term trading in the market [3]. Understanding Stock - Bond Market Trends from the Perspective of Fundamental Trading - Apparently, fundamentals are not the core contradiction of current stock - bond trading. Factors such as investors' risk appetite, market liquidity, incremental funds, and potential policies have a greater impact on the equity market. The relatively fragile sentiment in the bond market is the main reason for the recent more - decline - less - rise situation in the bond market. The commodity market pays more attention to the introduction and implementation of anti - involution policies [4]. - Deeply, the anchoring effect of fundamentals cannot be ignored, especially for the bond market. Relatively weak fundamental data can frame the approximate upward range of treasury bond yields. 10 - year treasury bonds with a yield above 1.80% still have a certain investment cost - effectiveness. - The impact of current fundamentals on the bond market is asymmetric. Relatively weak fundamental data in line with expectations may not effectively boost bond market sentiment and catalyze a bond market rally, while unexpectedly strong data may hit the already fragile bond market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand - side data such as consumption and price indices such as CPI [4].