预计国债买卖将择机重启

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The timing for the central bank to restart treasury bond trading opportunistically may be gradually maturing. If restarted, it may take forms such as "buying short and selling long" (though "selling long" may not be necessary currently), directly "buying short", or moderately lengthening the duration of purchased treasury bonds. The impact on the market is expected to be relatively neutral [7][8][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Treasury Bond Trading Expected to Restart Opportunistically - From January to August 2025, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading operations for eight consecutive months. Currently, considering the treasury bond yield situation and the subsequent government bond issuance plan, the timing for restarting treasury bond trading may be gradually maturing. The current 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield has reached 1.80%, which opens up space for the restart. From the perspective of central bank - fiscal coordination, restarting treasury bond trading can enhance bond market liquidity and reduce fiscal financing costs [7][16][17]. 3.2 Possible Forms of Restarting Treasury Bond Trading 3.2.1 The Initial Operation Form of Treasury Bond Trading in 2024: "Buying Short and Selling Long" - In August 2024, the central bank announced treasury bond trading in the open market, specifically "buying short - term treasury bonds from some primary dealers in the open market and selling long - term treasury bonds". The central bank borrowed long - term bonds from some institutions for selling. However, currently, "selling long" may not be necessary as the policy - end demand for regulating treasury bond yields is not strong, and "selling long" may have a greater impact on short - term treasury bond yields [18][19][23]. 3.2.2 Similar to the Latter - Half Operation Form of Treasury Bond Trading in 2024: Directly "Buying Short" - In the latter half of 2024, the central bank may have directly "bought short". There were many treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year. If the central bank directly "buys short" this year, the large - scale net purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks since early June can smooth the impact on the secondary market [24][27][29]. 3.2.3 The Central Bank May Moderately Lengthen the Duration of Purchased Treasury Bonds - From the perspective of stabilizing the central bank's treasury bond holding scale and improving the term arrangement of liquidity injection, the central bank may moderately lengthen the duration of purchased treasury bonds. The maturity of purchased treasury bonds does not lead to the central bank's liquidity withdrawal [34][35]. 3.3 The Impact of Restarting Treasury Bond Trading on the Market May Be Relatively Neutral - The central bank is expected to balance the liquidity injection of multiple tools. The current adjustment of the bond market is not mainly due to monetary policy. If short - term treasury bonds are purchased, the large - scale net purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks can buffer the impact. Primary dealers may play a role in stabilizing market fluctuations [10][37][41].