8月金融数据的冷与热

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, financial data showed that fiscal policy continued to exert force in advance, the total financing volume increased, and corporate financing improved, but the recovery foundation of real - sector financing demand was still weak and needed to be consolidated. Future credit demand depends on the progress of fiscal expenditures such as ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the effect of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in the real estate market. - For the bond market, the data reflected the overall weakness of real - sector financing demand, which should have supported the bond market. However, the bond market experienced a significant adjustment that month. In a pessimistic sentiment, the market interpreted the structural improvement of the data relatively positively. Looking ahead, with the weak endogenous economic momentum, the central bank's monetary policy will remain moderately loose, and the bond market does not have the basis for a long - term sharp decline. [1][21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 8 - month Social Financing Data Analysis - Overall Social Financing Scale: The stock of social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. The cumulative increment of social financing scale in the first eight months was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In August, the increment of social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, 1.44 trillion yuan more than the previous month, indicating a recovery in financing demand after the low point in July, but still 463 billion yuan less than the same period last year. [5] - Financing Structure: - Government Bonds: Net financing of government bonds was 1.37 trillion yuan, still the core support. However, affected by the high base last year, the year - on - year contribution decreased marginally (a decrease of 251.9 billion yuan), ending the previous consecutive over - increase trend. - Loans to the Real Economy: RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 623.3 billion yuan, 417.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating that real - sector financing demand still needed further boosting. - Direct Financing: Bond net financing was 134.3 billion yuan, 36 billion yuan less than the same period last year; stock financing was 45.7 billion yuan, 32.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which was in line with the current situation of a strong stock market and a weak bond market. - Off - balance - sheet Bill Financing: It was relatively active. The monthly new increase was 215.8 billion yuan, nearly 100 billion yuan more than the same period last year; the new increase in undiscounted bank acceptance bills was 197.4 billion yuan, 132.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which to some extent replaced part of the on - balance - sheet bill demand. [5] Money Supply - The balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, the same as the previous month; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0%, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month. The M2 - M1 gap further narrowed to 2.8 percentage points, the lowest since June 2021, indicating an increase in the activation degree of funds. [11] RMB Loans - In August, new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan. The intensity of credit delivery increased compared with July, with a month - on - month increase of 640 billion yuan, but still 310 billion yuan less than the same period last year. - Corporate Loans: The structure of corporate loans improved. Medium - and long - term loans increased by 470 billion yuan, basically close to the level of the same period last year. Short - term loans increased by 70 billion yuan, 260 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Bill financing decreased by 492 billion yuan year - on - year, indicating a reduction in bill - padding by banks and relatively optimized credit quality. - Resident Loans: Resident loans were still weak. Short - term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, 61.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 20 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan less than the same period last year, reflecting that the overall momentum of consumption and housing purchase demand was not strong. [16]