Soochow Securities·2025-09-16 04:57Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the shipbuilding industry [1] Core Insights - As of the end of August 2025, the new ship price index is at 186.3, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Supply constraints are supporting high ship prices [1] - New ship orders in August 2025 totaled 4.22 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decline of 77.5% and a month-on-month decline of 57.9%. Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, new ship orders reached 66.92 million deadweight tons, down 52.8% year-on-year [1] - Despite the decline in new orders, the total investment remains substantial, exceeding the average level of the past decade by 27.2% [1] - The report highlights that the Chinese shipbuilding industry maintains a strong market position, with Chinese shipyards holding 68.3% of global orders as of August 2025 [2] - The merger of China State Shipbuilding Corporation and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is nearing completion, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the industry [3] Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Orders and Prices - The new ship price index as of August 2025 is 186.3, with specific price indices for different ship types: bulk carriers at 168.7, oil tankers at 212.5, container ships at 116.4, and gas carriers at 200.7 [1][8] - The head shipyards have orders extending into 2028, indicating a supply constraint that supports high global ship prices [1] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - As of August 2025, global shipyards have a total order backlog of 397 million deadweight tons, with a coverage ratio of 4.5 years [2] - The report notes that the Chinese shipbuilding industry is unlikely to be replaced due to its complete industrial chain and cost advantages [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the Chinese shipbuilding company reported revenues of 40.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, up 109% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates continued growth momentum for the Chinese shipbuilding company, with a backlog of orders valued at 233.5 billion yuan as of June 2025 [3]