农产品日报：消费提振有限，猪价维持震荡-20250916

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the industry: Cautiously bearish for both the hog and egg sectors [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For hogs, the short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change due to the reduced festival boost from the earlier weight - reducing sales by group factories. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the reduction of sow capacity and national policies [2] - For eggs, the short - term strong consumption demand during the double festivals has driven up the spot price. However, the potential impact of cold - stored eggs entering the market needs to be closely monitored [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Hog - Futures: The closing price of the hog 2511 contract was 13,275 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.15%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary hogs was 13.32 yuan/kg (unchanged); in Jiangsu, it was 13.49 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.87 yuan/kg, down 0.18 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on September 15: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 117.94, down 0.37 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 118.71, down 0.45 points. The average pork price was 19.88 yuan/kg (unchanged), beef 65.66 yuan/kg (unchanged), mutton 61.09 yuan/kg, down 0.3%, eggs 8.11 yuan/kg, up 2.0%, and白条鸡17.52 yuan/kg, up 0.5% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3143 yuan/500 kilograms, up 103 yuan (+3.39%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.49 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.75 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 3.60 yuan/jin, up 0.27 yuan [3] - Inventory: On September 15, the production - link inventory was 0.45 days (unchanged), and the circulation - link inventory was 0.56 days, down 0.09 days (-13.85%) [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Hog - The earlier weight - reducing sales by group factories have weakened the festival boost. In the short - term, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists, while in the long - term, the reduction of sow capacity and policy changes are key factors [2] Egg - After the egg price increase, the terminal consumption and trading are smooth, and the inventory has been cleared. The overall demand is still strong due to the double festivals, but the potential impact of cold - stored eggs needs attention [4] Group 5: Strategies - For hogs, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3] - For eggs, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [5]