蛋白数据日报-20250916

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The September USDA supply - demand report lowered the US soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, with an adjustment less than expected. The demand side increased crushing and continued to reduce exports, resulting in the 25/26 annual US soybean ending stocks of 300 million bushels slightly higher than market expectations, bringing some negative impacts. However, the new US soybean balance sheet remains tight, supporting the downside of the US market. Recently, rumors of China - US trade negotiations have brought some positive impacts to the US market. After a short - term decline due to report data, the US market rebounded strongly. Also, the Brazilian premium has declined. Considering the import cost expectations of the US market and premium, there is still some support for the downside of the domestic soybean meal. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the short - term supply pressure of domestic soybean meal is still high. This week, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and oil mills are eager to deliver, putting pressure on the spot premium. Overall, there is no substantial progress in China - US negotiations. The domestic soybean meal is expected to be supported by import costs and will mainly operate in a range. Future focus should be on China - US policy changes [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis Data - The basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and time periods are presented, including the basis of soybean meal主力合约 (Zhangjiagang), 43% soybean meal spot basis, rapeseed meal spot basis, etc. For example, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Dongguan is - 82 [5]. 2. Spread Data - Spread data such as M1 - RM1, M1 - 5, RM1 - 5, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in both spot and futures are provided. For example, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 900, with a change of 352 [6]. 3. Inventory Data - Inventory data of soybeans and soybean meal are shown, including China's port soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil mills' soybean meal inventory. For example, the major oil mills' soybean meal inventory in 2025 is presented in the data [6]. 4.开机 and压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills are presented, showing the data from 2020 to 2025 [6].