铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international gold price has reached a new high, and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening has increased. The market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continues, and the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities are affected by various factors such as Sino - US relations, economic data, and Fed's interest - rate decisions [2][3]. - Different commodities show different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to be strong before the Fed's interest - rate cut in September but may face short - term corrections after the cut; copper prices are expected to oscillate upward; aluminum prices are macro - driven and remain strong; zinc prices are expected to slowly move up; lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term but need to pay attention to the callback risk; tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase; industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate; lithium carbonate prices may rise; nickel prices are cautiously bullish; oil prices are oscillating; soda ash prices are expected to oscillate, and glass prices may rise; steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound; iron ore prices are expected to be strong; and soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate, while palm oil prices are expected to adjust [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Sino - US reached a framework agreement on TikTok, and the deadline may be extended. Before the FOMC meeting, the market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continued, with the US dollar index falling, US bond yields declining, the US stock market reaching a new high, and the gold price hitting 3685 and copper price reaching a 15 - month high. The Senate approved Trump's nominee for the Fed governor [2]. - Domestic: The economic data in August cooled down comprehensively. The market's expectation of policy strengthening increased, and an event to introduce policies to expand service consumption will be held on September 17. The A - share market oscillated narrowly, and the bond market was in a state of being insensitive to good news and sensitive to bad news [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The prices of international precious metals continued to rise on Monday. The COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce, and the silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates and the deterioration of US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The latest US economic data was weak. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has been fully priced in the market, and there may be one or two more cuts by the end of the year. The report that China may relax gold import and export regulations stimulated strong buying [4][5]. - Before the Fed's interest - rate cut on September 18, the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain strong. However, after the interest - rate cut, there may be a short - term correction due to profit - taking [5]. 3.3 Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward on Monday, and LME copper continued to rise after breaking through the integer mark. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper was dull. Sino - US reached a strategic framework consensus in the new - round negotiation. The market has basically confirmed a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut, with the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. The weakening of the US dollar index boosted the metal market. Freeport's copper - gold mine in Indonesia is still shut down [6][7]. - Given the positive macro - environment and the interruption of overseas mines and the approaching consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21020 yuan/ton, down 0.47% on Monday. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased. The market is almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, and the weakening of the US dollar index continued to boost aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the social market increased, and the consumption peak season needs to be verified. In the short term, aluminum prices will be macro - driven and remain strong [8]. 3.5 Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and strongly at night on Monday. The spot market trading was mainly among traders, and the downstream demand did not show signs of the peak season. The social inventory increased. The sharp decline of the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the metal. The downstream consumption peak season has not yet appeared, and the inventory increase suppresses zinc prices, but the strong performance of LME zinc boosts Shanghai zinc. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to slowly move up [10]. 3.6 Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and its center of gravity moved down slightly at night on Monday. The inventory increased slightly, but the market expects downstream enterprises to stock up before the National Day holiday, so the impact on lead prices is limited. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain strong in the oscillation, but attention should be paid to the callback risk due to insufficient consumption improvement [11]. 3.7 Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and oscillated narrowly at night on Monday. The LME tin inventory has stabilized at a low level, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The domestic downstream consumption improvement is limited, and the inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. However, the shortage of tin ore raw materials has not improved, and the refinery's production has decreased. Tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase after the slowdown of the upward trend [12]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply side is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of recovery. The social inventory has increased slightly. The price of the spot market has stabilized. The domestic anti - involution sentiment is fluctuating. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply has reached a new high, and the downstream consumption is good, but the supply pressure still exists. The short - term technical indicators are positive, and the downstream replenishment season has arrived. Lithium carbonate prices may rise, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the inventory structure [15][16]. 3.10 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Monday. The Fed is approaching an interest - rate cut, and Indonesia's new round of RKAB approval is coming. The market's bullish sentiment is increasing, but the inventory pressure at home and abroad still exists. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish [17][18]. 3.11 Crude Oil - Oil prices oscillated strongly on Monday. OPEC + has a clear production - increase plan, and the supply pressure exists due to the approaching consumption off - season. However, geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and potential geopolitical risks may drive oil prices to rise periodically. Oil prices are expected to oscillate [19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly on Monday. Some soda ash production facilities are under maintenance, and the downstream's willingness to stock up before the National Day is high. However, the market is pessimistic about the future due to high inventory. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. The glass market is generally stable, and some flat - glass enterprises have reduced prices to promote sales. The photovoltaic glass market is hot, but there is a risk of capacity reduction. Glass prices may rise [20]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The macro - environment and cost support are positive, but the peak - season expectation of steel demand is difficult to be fulfilled. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. Iron ore futures also oscillated and rebounded. The Sino - US economic and trade cooperation has reached a framework consensus, and the anti - involution policy expectation has increased. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the approaching National Day holiday. Iron ore prices are expected to be strong [21][22][23]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal declined on Monday. The US soybean harvest has started. The US soybean's excellent - rate and harvest progress are basically in line with expectations. The NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August was higher than expected. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the spot supply is sufficient. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in a range [24][25]. 3.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates this week, the US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index oscillated weakly. India's palm oil imports in August remained strong, and the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in early September increased. Palm oil prices are expected to adjust in the short term [26][28].