化工日报：青岛港口库存环比继续下降-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] 2. Core View of the Report - For natural rubber, in the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but the main rubber - producing areas overseas, especially Thailand, will still be affected by rainfall. The cost - side support for rubber remains strong. Although the domestic rubber arrival volume has slightly recovered, the downstream has been actively purchasing, leading to a significant reduction in Qingdao port inventory in the past week. After the end of maintenance, the downstream tire production rate has rebounded, and the overall downstream demand is in a seasonal peak with a month - on - month improvement. With both supply and demand booming and expected continuous downstream purchases, there may still be a slight reduction in inventory in the short term, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm. However, after the downstream restocking is completed, there will be pressure for the domestic port inventory to rise again. - For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently. The weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices, and the butadiene inventory has gradually increased. After the downstream restocking is completed, there may be pressure. However, the fundamentals of BR itself are still good. There are maintenance plans for several BR production facilities, which are expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. The downstream tire demand is in a peak season, tire manufacturers have increased their purchases, and the production rate has rebounded after the end of maintenance. The large price difference with natural rubber also supports the price of BR [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,995 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,710 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,705 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,790 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Import Volume: In August 2025, China imported a total of 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from 616,000 tons in the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase from 4.514 million tons in the same period in 2024 [2] - Export Volume of Cote d'Ivoire: In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [2] - Truck Sales: In August 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 84,000 (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% increase from 62,500 in the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks was about 708,000, a 13% year - on - year increase [2] - Automobile Production and Sales: From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, 4.292 million automobiles were exported, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, and 1.532 million new energy vehicles were exported, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On September 15, 2025, the RU basis was - 845 yuan/ton (- 25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 845 yuan/ton (+ 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,205 yuan/ton (+ 214.90), the NR basis was 577.00 yuan/ton (- 78.00); the price of whole latex was 15,150 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of mixed rubber was 15,150 yuan/ton (+ 170), the price of 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,850 yuan/ton (+ 170) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.06 Thai baht/kg (- 0.11), the price of Thai latex was 56.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.00 Thai baht/kg (- 0.70), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70) [4] - 开工率: The production rate of all - steel tires was 66.31% (+ 5.57%), and the production rate of semi - steel tires was 72.61% (+ 5.69%) [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,257,715 tons (- 7,183), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 586,639 tons (- 5,636), the RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (- 10,490), and the NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (- 605) [5] BR - Spot and Spread: On September 15, 2025, the BR basis was - 155 yuan/ton (- 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private - owned BR was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,698 yuan/ton (- 39) [5] - 开工率: The production rate of high - cis BR was 73.48% (- 2.68%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 8,210 tons (+ 950), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,300 tons (+ 1,650) [5] Strategy - The strategy for RU and NR is neutral. Considering the supply - demand situation and cost - side factors, the short - term price is expected to be firm, but there is inventory increase pressure in the future. - The strategy for BR is neutral. Although there are cost - side concerns, the fundamentals are good, and the price is supported by factors such as production facility maintenance and downstream demand [6]