油价反弹，PX/PTA跟随成本震荡上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of oil has rebounded recently, and PX/PTA has followed the cost to fluctuate upwards. The demand for polyester shows signs of recovery, but the order connection is insufficient, and the market's expectation for the subsequent demand is moderately pessimistic. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in September. For PX, the fundamentals weakened in August, but the low inventory and the restart of PTA will turn it into a destocking situation again, providing support for PXN. For PTA, there is a destocking situation in the near - term, but there is a stack - up pressure in the fourth quarter. For PF, the short - term supply - demand situation is better than the raw material end. For PR, the processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and there is a large supply - demand pressure under the new device production expectation [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents figures related to the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures cover the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][26]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [28][31][33]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include the filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [48][50][60]. 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [69][73][80]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][92][95].