新能源及有色金属日报：底部支撑较稳，镍不锈钢价格走高-20250916

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom support of nickel and stainless steel prices is relatively stable, and the prices are rising. Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding as inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks and material costs have risen. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,580 yuan/ton, a change of 1.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 102,679 (- 42,422) lots, and the open interest was 70,610 (- 2,030) lots. The night session of the main contract stabilized at a high level, standing above 122,000 yuan/ton. After the opening of the day session, it declined slightly but then rose with the overall metal sector, reaching a maximum of 122,900 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel Ore - The market remained calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. Downstream nickel - iron had a strong bullish sentiment, but iron plants were still in the red and were cautious in nickel - ore procurement. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars. The current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was generally average, and the premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand were slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,959 (+1,430) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 224,484 (- 600) tons [2]. Strategy for Nickel - Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, and the overall strategy is based on range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 13,070 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 180,934 (+180,934) lots, and the open interest was 133,829 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session trend was stable, but after the opening of the day session, affected by the price increase of a large domestic stainless - steel plant, the price rose strongly, reaching a maximum of 13,100 yuan/ton and slightly retracting at the close [3]. Spot - Affected by the rise of the futures price, the spot price increased. Although the acceptance of high - priced goods was low, inquiries increased significantly, market activity improved, and actual transactions were fair. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - With inventory decreasing for nine consecutive weeks and material costs rising, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].