农产品日报：多空博弈加剧，关注新棉收购价-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton inventory has reached a four - year low, and the supply - demand situation of US cotton in the new year is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is restricted. The domestic cotton price has strong short - term support, but there is also pressure during the new flower listing period. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, the international raw sugar price is under pressure but has a certain support, and the domestic sugar price is driven downward in the short term but the downward space is limited [5] - Regarding pulp, there is still supply pressure, and the demand side is weak. In the short term, the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,885 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,167 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA's September report, in the 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton seasons, the global cotton output, consumption, and trade volume increased, and the ending inventory decreased [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand data in the new year has improved, but the US cotton export sales progress is slow. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the supply is tight at the end of the year, and the demand has improved marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure during the new flower listing period is large [2] Strategy - If the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fails or is not good enough, the Zhengzhou cotton price may fall. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day. The spot prices in Nanning, Guangxi and Kunming, Yunnan remained unchanged [4] - The USDA predicts that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 9.47 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2%. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of 2025 [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased production but has support from the ethanol price. The domestic sugar price has been following the international market down due to poor sales and concerns about syrup policies [5] Strategy - The short - term domestic sugar price is driven downward, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound while the price oscillates at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,056 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (+1.32%) from the previous day. The spot prices of different pulp types in Shandong had different changes [6] - The import wood pulp spot market had mixed price trends, with different price adjustment ranges for different pulp types [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, although there are overseas pulp mill production cut news, the supply pattern has not changed significantly, and the domestic pulp import volume is expected to decline. The port inventory is high, so the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the global pulp consumption is weak, and the domestic demand is also lackluster [8] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9]