新能源及有色金属日报：下游需求仍偏弱，但宏观因素使铅价相对抗跌-20250916

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Investment rating for the lead industry: Cautiously bullish [4] Group 2: Core View - Although downstream demand remains weak, macro - factors make lead prices relatively resistant to decline. With signs of a slight recovery in downstream lead - battery demand, tight raw - material supply, multiple smelter overhauls in September, and a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, lead prices are likely to rise gradually, with a fluctuation range of 16,960 - 17,280 yuan/ton [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 15, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.16/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 175 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot rose by 175 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot rose by 175 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium rose by 200 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,950 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,325 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,050 yuan/ton, closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 58,666 lots, down 4,763 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 47,056 lots, down 5,132 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,205 yuan/ton and a low of 17,030 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,165 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close. SMM1 lead price rose by 175 yuan/ton. In Henan, most suppliers preferred to deliver, a few quoted at a discount of 110 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract, and non - delivery brand factory - pickup sources were quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. In Hunan, after inventory decline, smelters mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, a few stopped quoting for spot sales, and others quoted at a discount of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. In Anhui and Jiangxi, suppliers quoted at a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. The spot market price increase was limited, downstream battery companies' purchasing enthusiasm was low, and market transactions were scarce [2] Inventory - On September 15, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 69,000 tons, up 1,900 tons from the previous week. As of September 16, the LME lead inventory was 225,625 tons, down 3,950 tons from the previous trading day [3] 2. Strategy - The overall strategy is to be cautiously bullish. Due to a slight recovery in downstream lead - battery demand, tight raw - material supply, smelter overhauls in September, and a likely Fed rate cut in September, lead prices are expected to rise gradually, with a fluctuation range of 16,960 - 17,280 yuan/ton [4]