黑色建材日报：宏观预期渐浓，钢价震荡偏强-20250916

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All products (steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, thermal coal) are rated as "Oscillating Strong" [2][4][7] Core Views - The steel market is influenced by increasing macro - expectations, with steel prices oscillating strongly. The iron ore market has a significant increase in shipments, and it follows the sector. The coking coal and coke market has positive sentiment and prices have risen significantly. The thermal coal market has stable chemical terminal procurement, and the origin coal prices are oscillating strongly [1][3][5][8] Summary by Product Steel - Market Analysis: Steel futures prices oscillated and rose yesterday. Spot trading was average, with better low - price trading mainly for terminals and pre - oversold restocking. National building material trading volume was 11760 tons, and steel inventories increased. Building materials face increased fundamental contradictions under inventory pressure, while plate demand remains resilient [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, there are stronger expectations for domestic policy stimulus. Anti - involution policies and double - festival restocking expectations stimulate steel prices [1] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating strongly [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Iron ore futures prices weakened slightly yesterday. In the spot market, prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly to 3573000 tons, with notable growth in Brazil and non - mainstream regions. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2362000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 86000 tons. National main port iron ore trading volume decreased by 13.90% to 96000 tons, while forward spot trading volume increased by 179.41% to 180500 tons [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Iron ore shipments recovered this week, arrivals decreased, and iron - water production increased significantly. Demand remains high, and inventory is at a medium level. Considering double - festival restocking demand, iron ore consumption is resilient [3] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating strongly [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations for further cuts. Downstream coke enterprises mainly maintain on - demand procurement. The price of imported Mongolian coal (Meng 5) is around 940 - 960 yuan/ton [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Policy expectations for counter - cyclical adjustment are strong. Fundamentally, production is restricted by over - production inspection policies, and consumption benefits from high iron - water production and pre - festival restocking. Inventory is decreasing, which may trigger price rebounds [6] - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be oscillating strongly in unilateral trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the origin, coal prices are rising steadily. Some mines have gradually restored supply after maintenance, and chemical terminal procurement is stable. In the port market, prices rebounded after stopping falling. Inventory did not increase significantly, and some traders were reluctant to sell. Imported high - calorie coal prices were stable, and low - calorie coal prices rebounded, narrowing the price gap with domestic coal [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply in the production area is recovering slowly. Although daily power coal consumption has decreased, non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short - term, prices will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still abundant [8] - Strategy: Not provided in the report