Group 1: Market Analysis - The US economic data remains weak. The September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to -8.7, far below the market expectation of 5. New orders and shipment indicators hit their lowest levels since April 2024 [1] - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 833.82 yuan/gram, closed at 831.60 yuan/gram, down 0.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 131,159 lots, and the open interest was 104,349 lots. In the night session, it closed at 839.08 yuan/gram, up 0.90% from the afternoon close [2] - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,018 yuan/kg, closed at 10,017 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 356,647 lots, and the open interest was 204,407 lots. In the night session, it closed at 10,116 yuan/kg, up 0.99% from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On September 15, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 4.036%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.503%, down 0.43 BP from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Positions and Volume Changes on SHFE - On September 15, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 607 lots, and the short positions changed by 145 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts decreased by 19.21% from the previous trading day [4] - In the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1285 lots, and the short positions increased by 352 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts decreased by 43.41% from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 976.8 tons, up 2.00 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,069.6 tons, down 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metal Arbitrage - On September 15, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 7.89 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 884.22 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 83.02, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.24, down 1.25% from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Data - On September 15, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 33,778 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 380,008 kg, down 40.68% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,248 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 9,330 kg [7] Group 8: Strategies - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Weak US economic data may prompt the market to bet on a faster Fed rate - cut pace. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 815 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The macro - environment and industrial metal attributes resonate. The silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow. The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,900 yuan/kg and 10,300 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels - Options: Put on hold [8]
贵金属日报：美经济数据维持弱势，中美经贸谈判达成框架共识-20250916
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-16 05:23