新能源及有色金属日报：海外升水快速走强-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, the inventory accumulation in China is expected to continue, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the expectations for the peak consumption season are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals. However, the impact of overseas inventories needs to be watched. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $30.17/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 70 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,190 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 110 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 90 yuan/ton. [1] - Futures: On September 15, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,345 yuan/ton, closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,830 lots, and the open interest was 92,003 lots. The highest price was 22,365 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,255 yuan/ton. [2] - Inventory: As of September 15, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 160,600 tons, an increase of 6,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 50,150 tons, a decrease of 375 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices fall, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories increase. The liquidity of spot goods improves, and procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits increase, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase. The raw material reserves of smelters are further improved, and the number of available days of ore does not decline. It is expected that the TC will continue to rise. The pressure on the supply side is increasing, and the inventory accumulation in China is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face great pressure. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]