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丙烯日报：供应端装置重启，现货成交转弱-20250916
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-16 05:23

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; For inter - period, after the restart of the main PDH, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the spread is high; For inter - variety, none [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of two PDH units in Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei has increased the supply, weakening the supply - side support and causing the spot price of propylene to decline. Some units are still under maintenance. On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream have been significantly compressed, and the overall operating rate has decreased month - on - month. Some downstream products have reduced their purchasing enthusiasm due to cost pressure, which may suppress the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, oil prices have rebounded, and the price of external propane has continued to strengthen, boosting market sentiment and causing the propylene futures to fluctuate higher [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The main contract closing price of propylene is 6442 yuan/ton (+22), the East China basis is 58 yuan/ton (-97), and the North China basis is 173 yuan/ton (-107) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 73% (-2%), the China CFR propylene - Japan CFR naphtha is 207 US dollars/ton (+11), and the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 95 US dollars/ton (+13) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 279 yuan/ton (-70) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 33% (-4.04%), production profit is - 215 yuan/ton (+85); Epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49); N - butanol operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (+53); Octanol operating rate is 96% (+1%), production profit is 65 yuan/ton (+61); Acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 485 yuan/ton (+153); Acrylonitrile operating rate is 72% (-1%), production profit is - 539 yuan/ton (+111); Phenol - acetone operating rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]