尿素日报：低价成交好转，关注成交持续性-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Before the export window period, go long on the UR01 - 05 spread when it is low; after the export window period, go short on the UR01 - 05 spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers cut prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the trading volume improved, and the subsequent sustainability needs attention [2] - The urea production is running at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand remain relatively loose [2] - The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [2] - The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. In September, it is still the export window period, and the urea export is ongoing with an accelerating pace. The export volume in August and September is expected to be good. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand on a month - on - month basis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - Information on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][7][8][15][17] 3.2 Urea Production - Information on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Information on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based production capacity utilization rate, and gas - based production capacity utilization rate is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Information on urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB price in China, urea large - particle CFR price in China, price differences, urea export profit, and on - paper export profit is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37][40][47] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Information on the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract open interest, and main contract trading volume is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][55][58] 4. Market Data as of September 15, 2025 4.1 Price and Basis - Urea main contract closed at 1,683 yuan/ton (+20) - The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1,640 yuan/ton (0) - The small - particle price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton (-20) - The small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (-10) - The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0) - The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-40) - The basis in Henan was - 43 yuan/ton (-30) - The basis in Jiangsu was - 43 yuan/ton (-30) - Urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-20) - Export profit was 1,167 yuan/ton (+62) [1] 4.2 Supply - side - The enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.34% (+0.08%) - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 113.27 million tons (+3.77) - The port sample inventory was 54.94 million tons (-7.15) [1] 4.3 Demand - side - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 37.82% (+4.74%) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.38% (-3.60%) - The number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.88 days (+0.47) [1]