航运衍生品数据日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC market showed a slight rebound. The main reason is that the 12 - contract was supported by factors such as the suspension of China - Europe freight trains, the expectation of National Day sailings suspension, and price - supporting factors, and performed strongly on Monday. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8][9][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Index: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1398, a decrease of 3.21% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1125, a decrease of 2.07%. The SCFI - US West increased by 8.27%, SCFIS - US West increased by 37.65%, SCFI - US East increased by 7.61%, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 12.24%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 8.05%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 11.82% [6]. - Contract Data: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values have varying degrees of increase compared to the previous values, with涨幅 ranging from 0.48% to 3.21%. In terms of positions, the positions of some contracts have increased or decreased slightly [6]. - Monthly Spread: The current value of the 10 - 12 monthly spread is - 493.1, a decrease of 40.5 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is 139.3, an increase of 29.9; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 402.3, an increase of 22.5 [6]. 3.2 Spot Price - The GEMINI price in late September dropped to 1600, QA dropped to 1800, PA dropped to 1700, and MSC dropped to 1750. The PAK freight rate center in the market in late September is around 1750 [10]. 3.3 Market Logic - In the European - line shipping market, the fundamental cargo volume is deduced based on EPMI data. The cargo volume will bottom out in October and turn around in November. In terms of freight rates, shipping companies will "compete for goods" from the end of September to late October, but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline of freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rates will fall back to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start signing contracts to support prices after the cargo volume recovers in November. In terms of capacity, some of the capacity suspended during the National Day will not resume after the holiday, but the impact of reducing ships in the off - season on the market is limited [10].