甲醇日报：下游MTO复工，港口基差微幅回升-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The port inventory pressure of methanol remains high, but after the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing, the port basis has slightly bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory accumulation rate may slow down, but the arrival pressure is still large, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [2] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol start - up in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month; the inventory of inland methanol factories is still low, and the overall situation is that the inland is stronger than the port. The port back - to - inland window is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report shows multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The figures in this part cover the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][27][31] III. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - The figures present the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P start - up rate (including integration), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integration) [34][35][37] IV. Regional Price Differences - The figures display the price differences between different regions such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, Taicang - Lunan, etc [39][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The figures include the production gross profit of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [51][56][58]