FICC日报：再提“全国统一大市场”，商品情绪有所提振-20250916

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - Domestic policy expectations are rising to counter increasing external pressures, with potential for incremental policies and fiscal expansion [1]. - The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed is likely to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, with focus on the subsequent rate - cut path [2]. - There are investment opportunities in different commodity sectors, and it is advisable to allocate more to industrial products and precious metals at low prices [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, China faced increased external pressure including weaker exports to the US and potential tariff hikes. The government has signaled more active macro - policies. Economic data showed mixed results: industrial增加值 rose 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales growth slowed to 3.4%, and investment growth was far below expectations. Economic momentum continued to decline in July and August, and incremental policies are expected [1]. - In the US, the August ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, CPI increased to 2.9% year - on - year, PPI growth slowed, and employment data were disappointing, supporting Fed rate cuts. The CBO has lowered the US economic growth forecast [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; precious metals and agricultural products are affected by overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply outlook, the chemical sector has "anti - involution" potential, and agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation but need fundamental support. Precious metals are a good investment opportunity ahead of the Fed's rate - cut cycle [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to allocate more to industrial products and precious metals at low prices in the commodity and stock index futures markets [4]. Key News - The National Bureau of Statistics stated that the national economy in August was generally stable but faced risks. Retail sales in August were 39668 billion yuan, up 3.4% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing decline. Sino - US trade talks were held in Spain from September 14 - 17 [5].