烧碱下游厂家调低接货价，关注接货节奏

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market continues to be weak, with supply remaining abundant and demand showing slight improvement. The inventory is high, and there is still room for profit compression. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution policies [4]. - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight decline. The demand support is weakening, but cost support exists. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm before the holidays and the production - start rhythm of Guangxi alumina [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4921 yuan/ton (+45), the East China basis is - 201 yuan/ton (+5), and the South China basis is - 131 yuan/ton (-15) [2]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+50), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4790 yuan/ton (+30) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 502 yuan/ton (-81), and the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 672 yuan/ton (-1). The PVC export profit is 7.4 dollars/ton (+0.2) [2]. - Inventory and production - start: The PVC factory inventory is 31.0 tons (-0.6), the social inventory is 53.2 tons (-0.1), the calcium carbide - based production - start rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based production - start rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall production - start rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [2]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 68.9 tons (+1.8) [2]. - Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2571 yuan/ton (+11), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 70 yuan/ton (-89) [2]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 845 yuan/ton (-25), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1650 yuan/ton (-78), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 746.4 yuan/ton (-78.1) [3]. - Inventory and production - start: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (-3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda production - start rate is 83.40% (-0.80%) [3]. - Downstream production - start: The alumina production - start rate is 85.21% (+0.83%), the printing and dyeing production - start rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber production - start rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [3]. Market Analysis - PVC: The overall PVC market remains weak, with supply and demand improving slightly. New production - start devices increase supply, and downstream demand is improving but export expectations in the fourth quarter are weakening. The inventory is high, and there is still room for profit compression. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [4]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight decline. Chlor - alkali enterprise production - start rates are slightly decreasing. Demand support is weakening, but cost support exists. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm before the holidays and the production - start rhythm of Guangxi alumina [4]. Strategy - PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V01 - 05 spread when it is low [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]. - Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see [6]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [6]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [6].