新能源及有色金属日报：经济数据偏差继续提振降息预期，铜价维持偏强-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [6] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there have been frequent supply - side disturbances in the copper market, with low TC prices and an unstable supply situation in the scrap copper industry. Although the demand is not outstanding, it is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. The "Golden September and Silver October" expectation may affect market sentiment. With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting and a high probability of a September rate cut, copper prices may maintain a volatile and bullish pattern. It is advisable to conduct buy - hedging at dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 15, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 80,750 yuan/ton and closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 80,890 yuan/ton and closed at 81,380 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper narrowed slightly. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,780 - 81,100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) over the main contract. The last trading day saw light trading. It is expected that the spot premium may show a pattern of high quotes and low transactions [2]. Important Information Summary - Economic data: The US September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to - 8.7, far below the market expectation of 5. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates immediately [3]. - Tariffs: China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - Mine end: Due to a mudslide at the Grasberge copper mine in Indonesia, only the Block Cave has stopped operation, and the overall mining operation in the Grasberg area is currently at 30% of normal capacity [3]. Smelting and Import - LME copper inventories are fluctuating, with the latest at 153,950 tons, a one - month low. SHFE copper inventories increased by 14.91% to 94,054 tons, a two - and - a - half - month high. COMEX copper inventories reached a new high since mid - August 2003. As of September 9, the net long position of funds in COMEX copper futures rebounded to 27,241 lots [4]. Consumption - Last week, the operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 67.53%, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate rose slightly to 67.62%. This week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises may rise to 70.79%, while that of cable enterprises is expected to drop slightly to 67.5% [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 152,625 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,083 tons to 30,643 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 15.42 million tons, a change of 0.99 million tons from the previous week [5]