对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱，PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱PTA

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for p-xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA) are short - term rebound and medium - term weakness; for monoethylene glycol (MEG), it is 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage [1] Group 2: Core Views - PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term. For PX and PTA, 11 - 01 positive spreads should be held and 1 - 5 reverse spreads should be taken. For PX, PXN compression positions should be stopped for profit below $220. For PTA, 01/05 contract PTA processing fees should be shorted on rebounds. MEG's valuation may recover in the short term but is weak in the medium term, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended [1][8][10][11] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures - PX主力昨日收盘价6752, up 6712 with a 0.60% increase; PTA主力4672, up 24 with a 0.52% increase; MEG主力4288, up 16 with a 0.37% increase; PF主力6342, up 10 with a 0.16% increase; SC主力489.3, up 14 with a 2.95% increase [2] Spreads - PX11 - 1 spread yesterday's closing price was 46, unchanged; PTA11 - 1 was - 18, unchanged; MEG1 - 5 was - 45, up 2; PF11 - 12 was 16, down 2; SC11 - 12 was 1.6, up 1.7 [2] Spot - PX CFR China was $835.67/ton yesterday, up $3.67; PTA East China was 4610 yuan/ton, up 45; MEG spot was 4377 yuan/ton, down 1; Naphtha MOPJ was $608.5/ton, up 10; Dated Brent was $67.6/barrel, down 0.14 [2] Spot Processing Fees - PX - naphtha spread was $232.83 yesterday, down 1.5; PTA processing fee was 107.46 yuan/ton, down 16.52; Short - fiber processing fee was 239.06 yuan/ton, up 2.85; Bottle - chip processing fee was 82.22 yuan/ton, up 27.77; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread was - 6.01, unchanged [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics Summary PX - Asian PX increased by $3.67/ton to $835.67/ton (CFR Unv1/China) and $814.67/ton (FOB Korea). A Chinese end - user said October demand is low. South Korea's August PX exports decreased 16.4% year - on - year to 426,317 tons but increased 4.7% from July. Hanwha Total shut its 1.2 million tons/year PX line in August for maintenance until end - September. Exports to China and Unv1 in August decreased 12.1% and 19% respectively compared to 2024, and exports to the US dropped to zero due to tariffs. Exports to Unv1 in August more than doubled month - on - month to 52,428 tons. South Korea's January - July exports decreased 0.36% year - on - year to 2.69 million tons. On September 15, PX price rose, with October and November Asian spot trades [3][4] PTA - On September 15, PTA spot price rose to 4600 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 80, a monthly average price of 4634.55 yuan/ton, and a monthly settlement price of 4680 yuan/ton [5] MEG - On September 15, MEG spot prices were around 4362 - 4395 yuan/ton, 10 - month - later futures were around 4340 - 4365 yuan/ton. The inventory at East China main ports was about 46.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from the previous period [5][6] Polyester - A 600,000 - tons/year polyester bottle - chip plant in East China stopped recently with an undetermined restart time. On September 15, the sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 63% on average by 3:00 pm [6][7] Group 5: Trends and Recommendations PX - Short - term: follow oil price rebounds, with policy support for consumption to be monitored. Hold 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads, stop profit for PXN compression positions below $220. Domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%). Overseas, SK Incheon's fire didn't affect PX production, and some Japanese plants may restart. PTA demand load is 76.8% (+4%) [8][9] PTA - Short - term: follow oil price rebounds, hold 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads, short 01/05 contract PTA processing fees on rebounds. Current PTA spot processing fee is falling. Some PTA plants may restart or be shut for maintenance. Polyester demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [10] MEG - Short - term: market focuses on anti - involution policy, coal price rebounds, and valuation recovers. Medium - term: weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spreads recommended. Supply pressure is emerging, and polyester demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [11]