方正中期期货新能源产业链日度策略-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium salt market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. With the peak demand season and pre - National Day restocking by downstream enterprises, the short - term inventory depletion trend is expected to accelerate. Downstream enterprises are advised to seize futures buy - hedge opportunities according to their risk management needs [3][5]. - The industrial silicon market shows a situation of weak reality and strong policy expectations. The supply is steadily increasing, and the demand is driven by polysilicon. The price is in a stalemate, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to take an interval trading approach and consider taking profits on long positions at high prices [6]. - The polysilicon market has a supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental pattern. Although the overseas demand for battery cells is good, the market is still in a state of oversupply. The price operation logic depends on future policy clarity and implementation. It is advisable to consider buying on dips and participating with a light position [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Spot Prices a. Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, it is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. Upstream enterprises should seize high - price selling - hedge opportunities, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - price stockpiling or buying - hedge opportunities. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 80,000 - 82,000 [13]. - For industrial silicon 11, it is expected to oscillate within an interval. It is recommended to use an interval trading approach and preferably sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low prices. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 8,900 - 9,000 [13]. - For polysilicon 11, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is advisable to consider buying on dips and participating with a light position. The support level is 51,000 - 52,000, and the pressure level is 56,000 - 57,000 [13]. b. Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium Carbonate | 72,680 | 2.14% | 482,790 | 309,446 | 44 | 38,963 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,800 | 0.63% | 498,210 | 290,948 | 12,960 | 49,905 | | Polysilicon | 53,545 | - 0.34% | 237,981 | 132,212 | - 2,686 | 7,850 | [14] Second Part: Fundamental Situation a. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, close to the weekly production record high. All lithium - extraction processes saw an increase in production. The total sample inventory was 138,512 tons, a decrease of 1,580 tons from the previous week. The inventory is still at a high level, but the inventory of lithium salt enterprises is shifting downstream, and the downstream inventory has reached a new high [4]. - Downstream Situation: Downstream material factories are generally in a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. During the peak demand season, there is a certain demand for pre - National Day stockpiling, and the purchase willingness is relatively strong when the price is low [3]. b. Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: The supply of industrial silicon is steadily increasing, mainly due to the increase in furnace starts in the northwest region. The inventory has been in a high - level consolidation state since August [6]. - Downstream Situation: The polysilicon industry has a strong price - support intention, with some enterprises starting to stockpile materials, while the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries perform generally, with downstream enterprises restocking as needed [6]. c. Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: In September, the polysilicon production remained at a high level, and the supply was continuously abundant. There was a slight inventory accumulation this week [7]. - Downstream Situation: The overseas demand for battery cells is good, but the overall market is still in a state of oversupply. Pulling - crystal factories are resistant to high - price silicon materials and mainly purchase as needed [7].