Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil market is currently mixed with both bullish and bearish factors. The Y2601 contract may oscillate widely between 8250 - 8450 in the short - term and is expected to rise in the long - term. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options or going long on the 01 contract bean oil - meal ratio [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The rapeseed market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [3]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long with a light position [4]. - The corn and corn starch markets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [6]. - The hog market is in a low - level consolidation phase. It is advisable to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - The egg market has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling rashly and consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [9]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - For soybeans (including bean one and bean two), the supply is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be bearish or volatile. For peanuts, the new season has increased production and reduced costs, and the market is expected to be volatile. For soy oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For rapeseed oil, the market is expected to be slightly bullish. For palm oil, the market is expected to be slightly bearish. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the market is expected to be volatile. For corn and starch, the market is under pressure. For hogs, the market is expected to rebound. For eggs, the market is expected to find a bottom [12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, it is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the 3 - 5 spread of soybean meal (go long on the spread) and the 1 - 3 spread of hogs (go long on the spread at a low price) and the 10 - 1 spread of eggs (go long on the spread at a low price). For inter - commodity spreads, it is recommended to go short on the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, go long on the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and go long on the 01 bean oil - meal ratio [13][14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, such as the CNF price, import duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, including soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. 2. Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3. Livestock - It provides daily and weekly data on hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [21][23][25]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a large number of charts related to the livestock, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, such as the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and consumption data of various commodities [26][35][60]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the historical volatility charts of various commodities' options, such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [94]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides the warehouse receipt quantity charts of various commodities, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [97].
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250916
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-09-16 06:00