华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250916

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The performance of finished products is expected to be weak with a downward - shifting center of gravity, showing an oscillatory and consolidating trend [1][2] - Aluminum ingot prices are expected to be supported by macro - expectations, with short - term price strength. Attention should be paid to inventory consumption during the peak season [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown will affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output; Anhui short - process steel mills' shutdown will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, and the market was pessimistic under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Aluminum prices were strong yesterday. Investors are waiting for the Fed to resume interest rate cuts, and Trump called for faster monetary policy easing. China's industrial growth in August supported aluminum demand [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high, with a slight increase in the industry's operating rate. The proportion of molten aluminum is expected to rise slightly [2] - Alumina prices fluctuated narrowly, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum changed little. Although the weekly cost decreased, the demand improved, and the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises rose by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% [2] - On September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased. The inflection point of inventory reduction in September needs further observation [2]