爱施德（002416）：2025年半年报点评：优化业务结构，拓展海外市场

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 13.86 CNY [5][11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to stabilize and recover its revenue and net profit through business structure optimization and overseas market expansion. The upcoming release of the iPhone 17 series is anticipated to benefit the company as a leading distributor [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 92.16 billion CNY, with a decline to 65.82 billion CNY in 2024, followed by further decreases in 2025 to 56.36 billion CNY. Revenue is expected to grow again in 2026 and 2027 to 59.18 billion CNY and 61.48 billion CNY, respectively [4][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 655 million CNY in 2023 to 581 million CNY in 2024, with a slight recovery to 597 million CNY in 2025, and further growth to 658 million CNY and 713 million CNY in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decline from 0.53 CNY in 2023 to 0.47 CNY in 2024, with a slight recovery to 0.48 CNY in 2025, and growth to 0.53 CNY and 0.58 CNY in 2026 and 2027 [4][12]. Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced significant revenue declines, with Q1 and Q2 showing revenue growth rates of -41.2% and -26.5%, respectively. Net profit growth rates for the same periods were -24.9% and -58.1% [11]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 4.94%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year, with communication products at 3.71% and non-communication products at 10.3% [11]. Market Expansion - The company has strengthened its retail capabilities and is expected to benefit from the iPhone 17 series launch, with over 2,000 Apple authorized stores and a significant increase in sales scale [11]. - Overseas sales revenue grew by 29.96% in the first half of 2025, with market shares in Hong Kong and Macau reaching 20.2% and 32.4%, respectively [11].